Grain Futures Update

News & commentary on Grain Futures markets including wheat, soybeans, corn & more.

Grain Futures Update is a blog dedicated to bringing updates, news and commentary on grain futures markets including the commodities wheat, corn, soybeans and more.

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corn buy signal 04/23

Posted on 4/23/2014 1:31:31 PM by: Larry Baer, Market Strategist @ Zaner. 312-277-0112.

Call me for trade

 

 


BELOW AREA WHAT I CONSIDER IMPORTANT PRICE POINTS TO WATCH.

Posted on 4/23/2014 6:50:31 AM by: Rick Alexander, VP, Trading @ Zaner. 312-277-0107.

 

Higher for rough rice, corn,  Minneapolis, Kansas City and Chicago wheat while lower for soybeans, soybean meal and soybean rice. I keep stating that we all know the world supply of wheat is large but that hadn't stopped the wheat March when this complex started retracing down. We all know the long term wheat complex direction has been lower but the next question should be where from here?  Wheat was moving higher in a 45 degree angle since the beginning of February and the its retracement began. I'm going to give my opinion of which price areas to keep an eye on for the longer term. I feel Minneapolis needs to hold the 700 area, KC 720 and Chicago 660.  For now, as long as these price areas hold, wheat complex should be alright no matter what I or anyone else thinks. The Minneapolis/ KC spreads continue to chop around in while in a long term down trend. I still need a close over -15 cents for a possible buy signal basis the July contracts. CALL FOR DETAILS! Finally, we have to keep an eye on the Ukraine situation but I don't feel wheat will be affected long term over this. Oats had its best close in eight sessions1 1/2 weeks having held its nearest support but I'm looking at 340 (July) and 380 (July)for a direction if either one gets penetrated along with closes below and above respectively. Meanwhile, I prefer to stand aside unless I get a Rick's pick signal. They're still in an uptrend overall but looking somewhat toppy. The 400 area remains important to hold psychologically. Corn had a strong close but is difficult for me to trade at this time. Still, it has been in an uptrend since January. I'm first watching 480 and 515 for breakouts to get a possible confirmed direction. Also, corn has impressively rallied and held most of its gains since the beginning of March in spite of drastically reduced cattle and hog herds. Don't forget around 75% of corn goes into feed down from 85% before ethanol was thrust upon us. The bean complex settled lower for its third consecutive session all in support areas and looking strong, especially the former two. The bean's (July) nearest support is under 1435 but I'm more concerned about holding the 1400 area while the meal's (July) is below 450 and 420. Oil continues to lag far behind the beans and meal but has been held up thanks to them and doesn't excite me for a pos,tion in either direction at this time.. BUY SIGNALS FOR MINNEAPOLIS, KANSAS CITY AND CHICAGO WHEAT LONG WITH OATS, CORN, SOYBEANS, SOYBEAN MEAL AND SOYBEAN OIL. CALL FOR DETAILS.  For additional charts, quotes, news, commentary & more sign-up for a FREE 30-day trial to Market head.Com

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


Will Fund Buying Run Soybeans to New Highs?

Posted on 4/22/2014 4:33:22 PM by: Ted Seifried, VP, Ag Hedging @ Zaner. 312-277-0113.

Soybeans have been under pressure to start the week after scoring new highs late last week.  So far this week funds have been net sellers, trimming their massive long position.  Will this trend continue, or are they getting ready to come back in a big way?
 
The bull market was in full swing last week as July soybeans set new highs on Thursday in front of the three day holiday weekend.  This strength was fueled by a March NOPA crush number that was almost 8 million bushels higher then expectations and set a new record for March crush.  At the end of last week it seemed as though the market was determined to factor in a 115-120 million bushel old crop soybean carryover.  However, after the long weekend it seems as if the market mentality has changed for the moment as the trade's focus has shifted to the possibility of China defaulting on 1.2 million metric tons of US and South American soybean sales, South American cargoes being switched to the US, and the possibility of more soybean acreage.
 
The talk in soybeans the last few days has centered around Chinese buyers trying to cancel open Brazilian contracts and that some of theses sales may get resold to the US.  News wires reported that 2 cargoes of Brazilian soybeans and 2 cargoes of Argentinean soymeal are on the way to the US.  Talk that China may soon sell state owned soybean reserves has also added pressure.  For new crop soybeans, news that corn plantings were only 6% complete compared to 14% as the five-year average has sparked talk that if farmers can not get corn planted in time there may be even more soybean acreage then the already record figure set by the USDA Prospective Plantings report.
 
In the midst of the bearish talk surrounding the soybean market the large speculators of funds have stepped aside and have been net sellers.  This has translated to a 50 cent sell off from last Thursday's highs.  However, this has now brought soybeans back to trend line support and could now start to draw attention from the technical traders looking to buy a pull back in an otherwise bull market.  Large speculators could very well be waiting in the wings to aggressively buy old crop soybean contracts one again.  It will be very interesting to see if and how strongly funds might come back at or near current price levels.  So far there is no strong technical topping formation in soybeans and technical trades could look to defend long positions at this point.  However, if soybeans can not hold current levels a bigger correction or fund liquidation event could follow.  For now we are waiting to sell old crop soybeans to see what the funds do at key support levels, and we are thinking they could come in as bigger buyers again soon.
 
New crop soybeans could be a different story.  With projected record world soybean stocks and projected record US planted acreage new crop soybeans prices could be at or approaching highs.  Certainly we still have a growing season to get through and a major weather issue could keep soybean stocks tight, but given normal weather soybean stocks could be near the highest levels in recent years by the time the US gets into harvest in the fall.  Now might be a good time to look at pricing strategies for new crop production.
 
I am happy be a guest analyst on US Farm Report this week, so tune in if you get a chance!  (or if your like me, record it and watch it later!)
 
Feel free to give me a call or shoot me an email if you would like to talk about your marketing plan, the markets, weather, or just to visit.   
 
May Corn Daily chart:

May Soybeans Daily chart:

May Wheat Daily chart:

All this means that speculators should be looking for opportunities and producers need to look to lock up some prices. Give me a call for some ideas. In particular, producers looking to hedge all or a portion of their production may be rather interested in some of the options / options-futures strategies that I am currently using.

In my mind there has to be a balance. Neither technical nor fundamental analysis alone is enough to be consistent. Please give me a call for a trade recommendation, and we can put together a trade strategy tailored to your needs. Be safe!

Ted Seifried (312) 277-0113 or tseifried@zaner.com

Additional charts, studies, and more of my commentary can be found at: http://markethead.com/2.0/free_trial.asp?ap=tseifrie


Should Corn be Fighting Harder for Acres?

Posted on 4/22/2014 3:32:59 PM by: Ted Seifried, VP, Ag Hedging @ Zaner. 312-277-0113.

According to the USDA's Prospective Planting report they expect corn acreage to drop 4% to 91.7 million acres and to the lowest level since 2010.  At the same time the USDA expects soybean acreage up 6% to a record high 81.5 million acres.  Planting intentions are up or unchanged in all States except Missouri and Oklahoma.  However, with the USDA estimating a 2.339 billion bushel increase in corn demand from last year to this year and a projection for a record world carry over for soybeans this year should corn prices be making more of a push to entice producers to plant more acres?
 
Since the USDA released their Prospective Plantings report on March 31st December corn is up 9 1/2 cents while November soybeans are up 52 cents.  So, if anything soybeans may be adding to the USDA's record plantings estimate and this could be coming at the expense of corn.  Worse yet, price may not be the biggest factor in determining acreage this year.  Weather will have a big say in the acreage mix.  Wet and cold weather could delay plantings and this could meant that producers may miss the window of opportunity to get all of their intended corn acreage planted and chose to plant more soybeans instead.  Also, a historically weak corn basis in the Northern Midwest is pushing producers toward soybeans regardless of price.  North Dakota currently has a negative 85 cent basis for corn due to rail competition from Bakken oil and is also not surprisingly where the USDA sees the biggest shift in acreage from corn to soybeans - almost 1 million acres.
 
So, while price may not be the biggest determining factor in the acreage mix in some areas shouldn't corn prices be strengthening in relation to soybeans to try to buy acres where it can?  This would certainly make sense.  Corn demand has come roaring back to life since we saw record prices in 2012 and with lower acreage this year it may take a near perfect growing season to keep up with demand.  Soybeans on the other hand have a much different story.  There are a lot of soybeans in the world today after a monster South American crop.  And, record acreage here in the US could translate in to  one of the biggest soybean stocks in years if we have anywhere near normal weather this growing season.  On top of that Chinese demand seems to be slowing as of late and the PED virus in hogs does not seem to be going away.
 
In the last few years global soybean demand has been growing while global production has had issues.  In the mean time corn demand has been fairly elastic relative to price fluctuations and this year corn production has rebounded significantly.  So the soybean market has been on a mission to increase global production.  However, markets have a tendency to over achieve its goals and may very well be in the process of "buying" more soybean production then needed.  If record acreage does get planted in the US (which looks likely) and we do have an ok growing season there could be a significant over supply in soybeans next year and prices could need to fall to buy more demand.  On the other hand, the corn market has already grown it's demand base with lower prices and a near perfect growing season will be needed to satisfy demand.  So, if you are making the switch to plant more soybeans this year it may be very important to look at new crop hedging strategies to lock in current price levels.
 
Feel free to give me a call or shoot me an email if you would like to talk about your marketing plan, the markets, weather, or just to visit.   
 
May Corn Daily chart:

May Soybeans Daily chart:

May Wheat Daily chart:

All this means that speculators should be looking for opportunities and producers need to look to lock up some prices. Give me a call for some ideas. In particular, producers looking to hedge all or a portion of their production may be rather interested in some of the options / options-futures strategies that I am currently using.

In my mind there has to be a balance. Neither technical nor fundamental analysis alone is enough to be consistent. Please give me a call for a trade recommendation, and we can put together a trade strategy tailored to your needs. Be safe!

Ted Seifried (312) 277-0113 or tseifried@zaner.com

Additional charts, studies, and more of my commentary can be found at: http://markethead.com/2.0/free_trial.asp?ap=tseifrie


NO UPDATE TODAY MORE COMPUTER PROBLEMS

Posted on 4/22/2014 6:08:52 AM by: Rick Alexander, VP, Trading @ Zaner. 312-277-0107.

 

Higher for rough rice while lower for corn, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, Minneapolis, Kansas City and Chicago wheat. I keep stating that we all know the world supply of wheat is large but that hadn't stopped the wheat, until three weeks ago, from moving higher in a 45 degree angle since the beginning of February. Because of its rally this year, the wheat complex has liitle support nearby but decent resistance around forty cents above all three. Now the wheat complex is in a minor support area. The Minneapolis/ KC spreads broke out in favor of the May contract last week but have fallen back into a support area since then.over 8 cents Also, the July congtract never gave me a buy signal, at least not yet. I would first need to see a close over  -15.0 before I would look more closely at placing positions. I would then probably begin buying retracements. CALL FOR DETAILS! Finally, we have to keep an eye on the Ukraine situations. Oats had its lowest close in 1 1/2 weeks but now in some support..I still need to close over 460 before I would look at buying or down around 380 if the technical's look right at that time. Meanwhile, stand aside.They're still in an uptrend overall but starting to act heavy. The 400 area remains important to hold psychologically. The weekly chart shows rice has been consolidating in a trading range between 1520 and 1580 since the middle of December. It seems to be forming a large possible bottom but acting very choppy at the same time which is what happens many times at tops and bottoms. Still, I would rather be conservative and stand aside until I see a close over 1590 or below 1530. Corn settled down but continues to look strong technically although lagging  behind the bean and meal overall. Now it had reversal type action on April 9th, I'm looking for a retracement back to a strong support area (475-590) Corn has impressively rallied since the beginning of March in spite of drastically reduced cattle and hog herds. Don't forget around 75% of corn goes into feed down from 85% before ethanol was thrust upon us. The bean complex settled lower but still looking strong overall led by the beans and meal. The beans nearest support is under 1435 while the meal's is below 470. Oil continues to lag far behind the beans and meal but has been held up thanks to them. BUY SIGNALS FOR MINNEAPOLIS, KANSAS CITY AND CHICAGO WHEAT LONG WITH OATS, CORN, SOYBEANS, SOYBEAN MEAL AND SOYBEAN OIL. CALL FOR DETAILS.  For additional charts, quotes, news, commentary & more sign-up for a FREE 30-day trial to Market head.Com

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


NO UPDATE TODAY

Posted on 4/21/2014 7:47:17 AM by: Rick Alexander, VP, Trading @ Zaner. 312-277-0107.

 

Higher for rough rice while lower for corn, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, Minneapolis, Kansas City and Chicago wheat. I keep stating that we all know the world supply of wheat is large but that hadn't stopped the wheat, until three weeks ago, from moving higher in a 45 degree angle since the beginning of February. Because of its rally this year, the wheat complex has liitle support nearby but decent resistance around forty cents above all three. Now the wheat complex is in a minor support area. The Minneapolis/ KC spreads broke out in favor of the May contract last week but have fallen back into a support area since then.over 8 cents Also, the July congtract never gave me a buy signal, at least not yet. I would first need to see a close over  -15.0 before I would look more closely at placing positions. I would then probably begin buying retracements. CALL FOR DETAILS! Finally, we have to keep an eye on the Ukraine situations. Oats had its lowest close in 1 1/2 weeks but now in some support..I still need to close over 460 before I would look at buying or down around 380 if the technical's look right at that time. Meanwhile, stand aside.They're still in an uptrend overall but starting to act heavy. The 400 area remains important to hold psychologically. The weekly chart shows rice has been consolidating in a trading range between 1520 and 1580 since the middle of December. It seems to be forming a large possible bottom but acting very choppy at the same time which is what happens many times at tops and bottoms. Still, I would rather be conservative and stand aside until I see a close over 1590 or below 1530. Corn settled down but continues to look strong technically although lagging  behind the bean and meal overall. Now it had reversal type action on April 9th, I'm looking for a retracement back to a strong support area (475-590) Corn has impressively rallied since the beginning of March in spite of drastically reduced cattle and hog herds. Don't forget around 75% of corn goes into feed down from 85% before ethanol was thrust upon us. The bean complex settled lower but still looking strong overall led by the beans and meal. The beans nearest support is under 1435 while the meal's is below 470. Oil continues to lag far behind the beans and meal but has been held up thanks to them. BUY SIGNALS FOR MINNEAPOLIS, KANSAS CITY AND CHICAGO WHEAT LONG WITH OATS, CORN, SOYBEANS, SOYBEAN MEAL AND SOYBEAN OIL. CALL FOR DETAILS.  For additional charts, quotes, news, commentary & more sign-up for a FREE 30-day trial to Market head.Com

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


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