Grain Futures Update

News & commentary on Grain Futures markets including wheat, soybeans, corn & more.

Grain Futures Update is a blog dedicated to bringing updates, news and commentary on grain futures markets including the commodities wheat, corn, soybeans and more.

This blog is brought to you by Zaner Group, one of America's oldest family-owned and operated futures and forex brokers.  Zaner provides a wide range of services from research and recommendations to the execution of all your futures needs.

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08/24/2015 Beans sell signal

Posted on 8/28/2015 12:29:56 PM by: Larry Baer, Market Strategist @ Zaner. 312-277-0112.

Call me for trade



Soybean Export Sales are Encouraging, but More Needed

Posted on 8/27/2015 3:50:52 PM by: Ted Seifried, VP, Ag Hedging @ Zaner. 312-277-0113.

Export sales were generally good for all grains on Thursday, but new crop soybean export sales were well above expectations.  What is more is that after being relatively quiet China was the main feature.  New crop soybean sales have been lagging well behind last year's pace so a better than expected sales number is encouraging.  However, we are a long way from closing the gap between this year and last.

The trade was expecting between 600 and 900 thousand metric tons of soybean sales in the last week.  At 1.46 Million metric tons, soybean export sales were well above expectations.  This is important because to date we are roughly 57% behind last years pace of new crop export sales, and after hitting new low prices in soybeans we really needed to have a good sales week.  The fact that China was a big buyer is also encouraging because they have been the biggest reason export sales have fallen well off of last years pace.

However, one week of big export sales is certainly not enough to close the gap between this year's and last year's pace.  In fact we only have to go back to the same week last year to see how difficult it might be to catch up.  In the same week last year we booked 1.3 million metric tons of new crop soybean export sales.  This means that despite the solid export sales in new crop soybeans last week we only closed the year over year gap by a marginal 170 thousand metric tons.  A drop in the bucket comparatively speaking.

So, while it is very encouraging to get a solid week of export sales it is gong to take more to close the gap and get near the pace of last year's export sales.  If we were to start seeing huge export sales numbers this could happen sooner than later, but more likely we will need to see consistently large figures week after week.  This could also mean that if soybean prices were to bounce the gap would be even tougher to fill.

Please give us a call if you would like more info on the strategies we are using or if you would like to set up an account to put a plan in action.  Ted Seifried - (312) 277-0113.  Also, feel free to give me a call or shoot me an email if you would like to talk about your marketing plan, the markets, weather, or just to visit.  Follow me on twitter @thetedspread if you like. 

Dec Corn Daily chart:

 

Nov Soybeans Daily chart:

 

Dec Wheat Daily chart:

 

Producers looking to hedge all or a portion of their production may be rather interested in some of the options / options-futures strategies that I am currently using.

In my mind there has to be a balance. Neither technical nor fundamental analysis alone is enough to be consistent. Please give me a call for a trade recommendation, and we can put together a trade strategy tailored to your needs. Be safe!

Ted Seifried (312) 277-0113 or tseifried@zaner.com

Additional charts, studies, and more of my commentary can be found at: http://markethead.com/2.0/free_trial.asp?ap=tseifrie


Outside Markets are Dominating Grain Trade

Posted on 8/27/2015 3:09:46 PM by: Ted Seifried, VP, Ag Hedging @ Zaner. 312-277-0113.

It has been a wild ride in many markets so far this week.  The equities markets in particular have had a range in the last two day closer to a range we would expect to see in a years worth of trade.  The grains markets have been under the influence of outside markets as big money seems to be playing a tug of war.  What should we expect next?

The Dow index futures were sharply lower going into the Monday day session and got even heavier as New York markets opened.  At one point the Dow index futures were down well over 1000 points.  At the same time grains markets were under significant pressure as well with soybeans down over 30 and corn and wheat both down over 10.  As the day wore on however the sock indices were able to make impressive comebacks and trim some of the losses.  Soybeans were able to do much of the same while still ending down on the day, corn and wheat however found strength from a sharply lower US$ and ended higher.

On Tuesday the sock indices attempted a heroic comeback that many of the media outlets were dubbing "The biggest rally of 2015" only to end the day at or near lows.  I take issue with calling the early bounce on Tuesday the biggest rally of 2015 because of context but either way it was short lived.  The bounce in the US$ however did hold some of its strength.  In the mean time soybeans attempted to rally along with the stocks while corn and wheat were under pressure from the higher US$.

What has gotten a little lost in the mix here was crop conditions remaining unchanged when the market was looking for slight declines and a 200,000 MT sale of soybeans to unknown.  Crop conditions holding steady is slightly bearish for corn and soybeans as this is the time of year when we would usually be looking for declines.  The soybean sale was nice to see however after a big drop Monday morning we could have hoped to see more.  Thursday's export sales report should be interesting.

Going forward outside markets may continue to have a profound effect on grains markets if they continue to take wild swings.  Large speculators are very flighty right now choosing to move in and out of markets as their risk appetites change on what seems to be a momentary basis.  Based on what we have seen so far this week however, it seems that the corn and wheat are looking to trade inversely to the big moves in the US$ while soybeans are more closely following the stock market.  It will be interesting to see how things trade in the next few days, but it stocks giving up their "turn around Tuesday bounce" may not be a good sign for the equities markets.  At some point, when things settle down, markets may get back to trading more traditional fundamentals. 

Please give us a call if you would like more info on the strategies we are using or if you would like to set up an account to put a plan in action.  Ted Seifried - (312) 277-0113.  Also, feel free to give me a call or shoot me an email if you would like to talk about your marketing plan, the markets, weather, or just to visit.  Follow me on twitter @thetedspread if you like. 

Dec Corn Daily chart:

 

Nov Soybeans Daily chart:

 

Dec Wheat Daily chart:

 

Producers looking to hedge all or a portion of their production may be rather interested in some of the options / options-futures strategies that I am currently using.

In my mind there has to be a balance. Neither technical nor fundamental analysis alone is enough to be consistent. Please give me a call for a trade recommendation, and we can put together a trade strategy tailored to your needs. Be safe!

Ted Seifried (312) 277-0113 or tseifried@zaner.com

Additional charts, studies, and more of my commentary can be found at: http://markethead.com/2.0/free_trial.asp?ap=tseifrie


08/24/2015 Beans sell signal

Posted on 8/27/2015 12:53:09 PM by: Larry Baer, Market Strategist @ Zaner. 312-277-0112.

Call me for trade



08/24/2015 Beans sell signal

Posted on 8/27/2015 12:52:01 PM by: Larry Baer, Market Strategist @ Zaner. 312-277-0112.

Call me for trade



THE CHINESE ECONOMIC WOES HAVEN'T HELPED!

Posted on 8/26/2015 6:38:05 AM by: Rick Alexander, VP, Trading @ Zaner. 312-277-0107.

WE HAVE A VERY GOOD HEDGING DEPARTMENT HEADED BY TED SEIFRIED. WHY NOT TALK TO HIM OR ANY OF OUR OTHER HEDGING BROKERS. NO ONE WILL PRESSURE YOU AND WHAT HAVE YOU GOT TO LOSE?  I'VE BEEN A LICENSED FUTURES BROKER FOR OVER 41 YEARS AND TRUST NO ONE MORE THAN TED AND HIS GROUP.

 

 

Higher closes for soybeans, soybean meal and soybean oil while lower for oats, rough rice, corn, Minneapolis, Kansas City and Chicago wheat. News of the Chinese economic woes have affected the world, grains included. Although the grain complex has been in an obvious bear market for quite some time, it still sold off when the Chinese news came out. However, the grains, as a whole, have held up better than many other markets because of being so low to begin with. That being said, Minneapolis and KC just made new CONTRACT LOW CLOSES. Minneapolis still has its nearest resistance around 530 and more at 550 while KC some small pockets of resistance just overhead (around the 500 area). Meanwhile, Chicago continues to be in a consolidation pattern over the last several weeks holding in its last support area so far. It now has a chance of ending its pattern of lower highs and lows on the weekly chart started back in May of last year. Of course, just don't forget grains are still in bear markets until proven otherwise. Continue to sell rallies with help from your broker and even better, our highly experienced hedge department, Since wheat is nearing the end of harvest time you might see a low in the cash markets for a while. Get experienced help for that as mentioned above. Oats made a new CONTRACT LOW CLOSE on Monday dropping five sessions in a row with its nearest resistance beginning near 240 and major resistance around 250 and above. There's still nothing bullish to say about this grain. Rice has retraced lower over the 1 1/2 weeks but still remains in a nice looking uptrend. If this uptrend is to continue rice need to hold the 1100 area and close over 1220. You can play the extremes of this range but I wouldn't take a long term position at this time. Corn continues to hold a strong looking support area and while acting toppy overall, has been trading roughly between 350 and 400  (critical psychological price) which are good parameters to trade until we see breakout in either direction. Also, there's still has one gap left at 429 1/4 that shouldn't be ignored. Hedgers have their own decisions to make based on their cost basis and yields accordingly which I keep mentioning for obvious reasons.The bean complex settled higher but soybeans and oil made new CONTRACT LOWS AND CLOSES on Monday both acting very bearish overall. At least meal has been consolidating over the last two weeks while holding 310 (beginning of support).  Oil just looks straight down. BUY SIGNAL FOR ROUGH RICE. SELL SIGNALS FOR MIINEAPOLIS, KANSAS CITY AND CHICAGO WHEAT ALONG WITH OATS. SOYBEANS, SOYMEAL AND SOYOIL. For additional charts, quotes, news, commentary & more, sign up for a FREE 30 -day trial to markethead.com.

 


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