Grain Futures Update

News & commentary on Grain Futures markets including wheat, soybeans, corn & more.

Grain Futures Update is a blog dedicated to bringing updates, news and commentary on grain futures markets including the commodities wheat, corn, soybeans and more.

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10/21/2014 Corn , Beans , Meal and Wheat have buy signals

Posted on 10/22/2014 1:53:03 PM by: Larry Baer, Market Strategist @ Zaner. 312-277-0112.

Call me for trade

 

 


THE GRAIN COMPLEX COULD BE OVERSOLD AND ITS BOTTOM IN PLACE FOR A WHILE

Posted on 10/22/2014 7:26:07 AM by: Rick Alexander, VP, Trading @ Zaner. 312-277-0107.

WE HAVE A VERY GOOD HEDGING DEPARTMENT HEADED BY TED SEIFRIED. WHY NOT TALK TO HIM OR ANY OF OUR OTHER HEDGING BROKERS. NO ONE WILL PRESSURE YOU AND WHAT HAVE YOU GOT TO LOSE? I'VE BEEN A LICENSED FUTURES BROKER FOR 41 YEARS AND TRUST NO ONE MORE THAN TED AND HIS GROUP

 

Higher closes for oats, rough rice, corn, Minneapolis, Kansas City and Chicago wheat along with soybeans, soybean meal and soybean oil. THE ACTION, STARTING LAST WEEK,. IS SHOWING SIGNS THAT THE GRAIN COMPLEX MIGHT BE OVERSOLD OR, AT LEAST, SETTING UP FOR A RETRACMENT RALLY. The lows across the board have held continuous assaults and only the bean oil took out a recent low so far. Of course, this complex is and has been in a long term downtrend and any buy signals would have to be considered short term until proven otherwise. Part of the problem is that it seems the bears are 'loaded up' and have little ammunition left leaving a vacuum overhead. So, be careful of what you do and don't invest too heavily in either direction at this time. The wheat complex settled higher with Minneapolis and KC's nearest resistance around 620 while Chicago's around 650. The wheat complex charts suggest, at least the short term, a bottom is in place while the long term trend remains down as just mentioned above. While my sell signals remain intact I would suggest standing aside for now. The Minneapolis/KC spreads remain disappointing after making their lowest low (board wise) since May 6th before settling higher. Oats made its best high and close (4 straight) in  over two weeks but still in good resistance but at least now moving towards its upper end. I still prefer to remain on the sidelines unless it settles over 358. Rice had its worst low  since Sept. 11th again but closed higher this time in reversal type action. Also. there's heavy resistance up to the 1310 area, A close over 1300, though, could reverse its downtrend trend. Corn settled higher also making its best high since Sept. 3rd continuing to act like the three dollar level could hold for some time while staying around the 350 psychological area. Strong looking resistance remains from 360 up to around 375. Every farmer that reads my comments should call me about hedging concerns so I can place them with one of our qualified hedging brokers. You should always be thinking ahead. Since everybody knows the government is looking at record crops and yields and corn storage remains a factor. Our hedge department says many farmers have been holding on to corn from the previous year(s) leaving little room for storage whereby farmers would be forced to sell a large part of their crops in the near term. WITH ALL THAT BEING SAID THE GRAIN COMPLEX HAS BEEN HOLDING AS MENTIONED ABOVE. The bean complex settled higher but with oil making its worst low since Sept. 11th. Don't forget a large percentage of last year's bean crop is still in South America with another season coming. Meal is now approaching a strong looking resistance area. The July15/Dec15 meal/oil spreads continue to trade hgirh now making it best high and close since the middle of September while remaining above money. Oil had reversal type action but has the price of a new recent low.SELL SIGNALS FOR MINNEAPOLIS, KANSAS CITY AND CHICAGO WHEAT ALONG WITH CORN, ROUGH RICE SOYBEANS, SOYBEAN MEAL AND SOYBEAN OIL. CALL FOR DETAILS.  For additional charts, quotes, news, commentary & more sign-up for a FREE 30-day trial to Market head.Com.

 

  

 

  

 

 

 

 


THE GRAIN COMPLEX COULD BE OVERSOLD AND ITS BOTTOM IN PLACE FOR A WHILE

Posted on 10/22/2014 7:25:40 AM by: Rick Alexander, VP, Trading @ Zaner. 312-277-0107.

WE HAVE A VERY GOOD HEDGING DEPARTMENT HEADED BY TED SEIFRIED. WHY NOT TALK TO HIM OR ANY OF OUR OTHER HEDGING BROKERS. NO ONE WILL PRESSURE YOU AND WHAT HAVE YOU GOT TO LOSE? I'VE BEEN A LICENSED FUTURES BROKER FOR 41 YEARS AND TRUST NO ONE MORE THAN TED AND HIS GROUP

 

Higher closes for oats, rough rice, corn, Minneapolis, Kansas City and Chicago wheat along with soybeans, soybean meal and soybean oil. THE ACTION, STARTING LAST WEEK,. IS SHOWING SIGNS THAT THE GRAIN COMPLEX MIGHT BE OVERSOLD OR, AT LEAST, SETTING UP FOR A RETRACMENT RALLY. The lows across the board have held continuous assaults and only the bean oil took out a recent low so far. Of course, this complex is and has been in a long term downtrend and any buy signals would have to be considered short term until proven otherwise. Part of the problem is that it seems the bears are 'loaded up' and have little ammunition left leaving a vacuum overhead. So, be careful of what you do and don't invest too heavily in either direction at this time. The wheat complex settled higher with Minneapolis and KC's nearest resistance around 620 while Chicago's around 650. The wheat complex charts suggest, at least the short term, a bottom is in place while the long term trend remains down as just mentioned above. While my sell signals remain intact I would suggest standing aside for now. The Minneapolis/KC spreads remain disappointing after making their lowest low (board wise) since May 6th before settling higher. Oats made its best high and close (4 straight) in  over two weeks but still in good resistance but at least now moving towards its upper end. I still prefer to remain on the sidelines unless it settles over 358. Rice had its worst low  since Sept. 11th again but closed higher this time in reversal type action. Also. there's heavy resistance up to the 1310 area, A close over 1300, though, could reverse its downtrend trend. Corn settled higher also making its best high since Sept. 3rd continuing to act like the three dollar level could hold for some time while staying around the 350 psychological area. Strong looking resistance remains from 360 up to around 375. Every farmer that reads my comments should call me about hedging concerns so I can place them with one of our qualified hedging brokers. You should always be thinking ahead. Since everybody knows the government is looking at record crops and yields and corn storage remains a factor. Our hedge department says many farmers have been holding on to corn from the previous year(s) leaving little room for storage whereby farmers would be forced to sell a large part of their crops in the near term. WITH ALL THAT BEING SAID THE GRAIN COMPLEX HAS BEEN HOLDING AS MENTIONED ABOVE. The bean complex settled higher but with oil making its worst low since Sept. 11th. Don't forget a large percentage of last year's bean crop is still in South America with another season coming. Meal is now approaching a strong looking resistance area. The July15/Dec15 meal/oil spreads continue to trade hgirh now making it best high and close since the middle of September while remaining above money. Oil had reversal type action but has the price of a new recent low.SELL SIGNALS FOR MINNEAPOLIS, KANSAS CITY AND CHICAGO WHEAT ALONG WITH CORN, ROUGH RICE SOYBEANS, SOYBEAN MEAL AND SOYBEAN OIL. CALL FOR DETAILS.  For additional charts, quotes, news, commentary & more sign-up for a FREE 30-day trial to Market head.Com.

 

  

 

  

 

 

 

 


THE GRAIN COMPLEX COULD BE OVEFSOLD AND ITS BOTTOM IN PLACE FOR A WHILE

Posted on 10/21/2014 7:41:27 AM by: Rick Alexander, VP, Trading @ Zaner. 312-277-0107.

WE HAVE A VERY GOOD HEDGING DEPARTMENT HEADED BY TED SEIFRIED. WHY NOT TALK TO HIM OR ANY OF OUR OTHER HEDGING BROKERS. NO ONE WILL PRESSURE YOU AND WHAT HAVE YOU GOT TO LOSE? I'VE BEEN A LICENSED FUTURES BROKER FOR 41 YEARS AND TRUST NO ONE MORE THAN TED AND HIS GROUP

 

Higher closes for oats and corn while lower for Minneapolis, Kansas City and Chicago wheat along with rough rice, soybeans, soybean meal and soybean oil. THE ACTION, STARTING LAST WEEK,. IS SHOWING SIGNS THAT THE GRAIN COMPLEX MIGHT BE OVERSOLD OR, AT LEAST, SETTING UP FOR A RETRACMENT RALLY. The lows across the board have held continuous assaults and only the bean oil is being threatened at this time. Of course, this complex is and has been in a long term downtrend and any buy signals would have to be considered short term until proven otherwise. Part of the problem is that it seems the bears are 'loaded up' with little ammunition left leaving a vacuum above not to mention a lot of resistance overhad. So, be careful of what you do and don't invest too heavily in either direction at this time. The wheat complex settled slightly lower with Minneapolis and KC's nearest resistance around 620 while Chicago's 650. The wheat complex charts suggest at least a short term bottom is in place while the long term trend remains down as just mentioned. While my sell signals remain I would suggest standing aside for now. The Minneapolis/KC spreads remain disappointing. Oats made its best high and close in two weeks but still in good resistance chopping around over this same period of time. Holding 320 was important in my opinion but I still prefer to remain on the sidelines unless it settles over 358. Rice had its worst low and close since Sept. 11th continuing to look weak overall with heavy resistance up to the 1310 area, A close over 1300 could reverse its downtrend trend. Corn settled one tick higher but acting like the three dollar level could hold for some time while chopping around the 350 psychological area. Strong looking resistance remains from 360 up to around 375. Every farmer that reads my comments should call me about hedging concerns so I can place them with one of our qualified hedging brokers. You should always be thinking ahead. Since everybody knows the government is looking at record crops and yields and corn storage remains a factor. Our hedge department says many farmers have been holding on to corn from the previous year(s) leaving little room for storage whereby farmers would be forced to sell a large part of their crops in the near term. The bean complex settled down with oil making its worst low and close since Sept. 11th & 12th..Don't forget a large percentage of last year's bean crop is still in South America with another season coming. The July15/Dec15 meal/oil spreads continue to trade around even money which could mean the beans may not be done yet. Oil closed down, and while still bearish, has showed some bottoming signs or at least it's in a consolidation mode. However, that possible bottoming action could be slowly fading away. SELL SIGNALS FOR MINNEAPOLIS, KANSAS CITY AND CHICAGO WHEAT ALONG WITH CORN, ROUGH RICE SOYBEANS, SOYBEAN MEAL AND SOYBEAN OIL. CALL FOR DETAILS.  For additional charts, quotes, news, commentary & more sign-up for a FREE 30-day trial to Market head.Com.

  

 

  

  

 


NO UPDATE TODAY

Posted on 10/20/2014 6:34:47 AM by: Rick Alexander, VP, Trading @ Zaner. 312-277-0107.

WE HAVE A VERY GOOD HEDGING DEPARTMENT HEADED BY TED SEIFRIED. WHY NOT TALK TO HIM OR ANY OF OUR OTHER HEDGING BROKERS. NO ONE WILL PRESSURE YOU AND WHAT HAVE YOU GOT TO LOSE? I'VE BEEN A LICENSED FUTURES BROKER FOR 41 YEARS AND TRUST NO ONE MORE THAN TED AND HIS GROUP

 

Higher closes for Minneapolis,Kansas City and Chicago wheat along with corn, rough rice, soybeans, and soybean meal while lower for soybean oil. The action lately continues to act like the grain complex has been oversold, at least for now. The monthly grain report leaned toward the bearish side but the grain complex, so far, has basically ignored it as evidenced by the charts below. Of course, this complex is and has been in a long term downtrend and any buy signals would have to be considered short term until proven otherwise. Part of the problem is that it seems the bears are 'loaded up' with little ammunition left leaving a vacuum above not to mention not a lot of resistance nearby. So, be careful of what you do and don't invest too heavily in either direction at this time. The wheat complex settled higher making their best closes since the middle of September for KC and Chicago wheat. The wheat complex charts suggest at least a short term bottom is in place with Minneapolis having its nearest resistance around 615 and in a possible BULL FLAG. This suggests room to retrace higher which could be a good opportunity to start hedging the next crop year. Meanwhile, I'm removing my sell signals separately only if each of the wheat takes out and closes above last week's highs. KC really has little resistance up to at least the 620 area and, like Minneapolis and Chicago (next resistance above 640), could have a nice rally. Oats settled higher still in good resistance stalling out over the last week. Holding 320 was important in my opinion but I still prefer to remain on the sidelines. Rice also settled higher and while still in a downtrend overall, could be forming a possible bottom but it remains in a sideways trading range since around the middle of September. A close over 1300 could reverse its downtrend trend. Corn had its best high and close since the beginning of September which included ending up above the 350 psychological area. Strong looking resistance remains from 360 up to around 375. Every farmer that reads my comments should call me about hedging concerns so I can place them with one of our qualified hedging brokers. You should always be thinking ahead. Since everybody knows the government is looking at record crops and yields and corn storage remains a factor. Our hedge department says many farmers have been holding on to corn from the previous year(s) leaving little room for storage whereby farmers would be forced to sell a large part of their crops in the near term. The beans and meal settled higher while oil lower this time. Their prices remain high historically meaning this complex has room to fall much lower in the end but does act oversold at this moment. .Don't forget a large percentage of last year's bean crop is still in South America with another season coming. The July15/Dec15 meal/oil spreads continue to trade around even money which could mean the beans may not be done yet. Oil closed down, and while still bearish, has showed some bottoming signs or at least it's in a consolidation mode. However, that possible bottoming action could be slowly fading away. SELL SIGNALS FOR MINNEAPOLIS, KANSAS CITY AND CHICAGO WHEAT ALONG WITH CORN, ROUGH RICE SOYBEANS, SOYBEAN MEAL AND SOYBEAN OIL. CALL FOR DETAILS.  For additional charts, quotes, news, commentary & more sign-up for a FREE 30-day trial to Market head.Com.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


Is the Low in for Soybeans?

Posted on 10/16/2014 1:24:58 PM by: Ted Seifried, VP, Ag Hedging @ Zaner. 312-277-0113.

As of the close on Thursday November soybeans are 44 cents higher on the week and 62 1/2 cents off of the low.  Weather concerns for the US harvest and South American planting season have been a factor in pulling soybeans off of the lows.  Outside markets have had an impact as well as large investors look to reduce risk.  The combination of weather concerns and fund buying has sparked a larger short covering rally, but is the low now in for soybeans?
 
Wet weather across a large portion of the US growing area in the last week has slowed harvest dramatically.  At the same time South America has some weather concerns of their own.  Northern Brazil is very dry and planting progress has slowed dramatically waiting for some rain.  Southern Brazil and Argentina have had too much rain which is also slowing planting progress dramatically.  However, the weather forecast going forward is looking better for all of the areas of concern.  For the US forecasts are looking for mostly dry weather in the next two weeks which will allow for aggressive harvest progress once rain soaked areas dry out.  The high pressure ridge over Northern Brazil is forecast to break down early next week and confidence is building as we get closer to that time frame.  Southern Brazil and Argentina are forecast to have some breaks in the rain to get more planting done as well.
 
Outside markets have been a wild card this week.  The US dollar falling off of 4-year highs has encouraged commodity buying across the board.  At the same time global economic concerns and Ebola concerns have put a lot of pressure on equities markets.  This all has large investors looking for less risk and more safety.  Some of the large speculators that have been short soybeans have been actively covering shorts to reduce risk while others have been entering into new long positions as a hedge against the reversal in the dollar.  So, different funds have been buying for different reasons but when you see fund buying happening in a market that has been in a longer term downtrend it can spark a larger short covering movement.  This is very likely what has been the case for soybeans recently.
 
This short covering rally in soybeans may have put in a low for the moment and may have put in a low for the November contract.  However, going forward it is difficult to assume that the fundamental outlook for soybeans has gotten much better.  Planting de3lays in South America are a concern.  If there were to be a major issue with the South American soybean crop there could be a sharp increase in demand for US soybeans and we could cut through our seemingly large ending stocks very quickly.  However, it is very early in the South American growing season and they still have a lot of time to get the crop planted.  We will continue to monitor this situation but we feel that South America will likely get the soybean crop planted in a timely fashion.
 
If South America can get the soybean crop planted and has a near normal growing season global stocks of soybeans would rise to a new record high.  On top of that we could still see an increase to last years record soybeans acreage in the US.  Soybeans do not represent a much more attractive profit margin at current price levels but they do represent less input cost and therefore less risk.  After a year of low prices producers may be looking to minimize risk for the coming growing season and could plant more soybeans.
 
Overall the fundamental picture in soybeans has not changed dramatically from what we are seeing.  We have a record crop here in the US and South America is in the process of planting another record amount of soybean acres.  With a mostly normal growing season we could have record soybean supplies this year.  US planted acres could set a new record next year as well.  Without a major production issue in South America global soybean prices could continue to decline.  The recent rally in soybeans could be a corrective bounce in a larger downtrend.  If this is the case it would be a good opportunity for producers to sell some production almost 70 cents better then a few weeks ago.
 
Feel free to give me a call or shoot me an email if you would like to talk about your marketing plan, the markets, weather, or just to visit.  Also, follow me on twitter @thetedspread if that is your thing. 
 
December Corn Daily chart:

November Soybeans Daily chart:

December Wheat Daily chart:

All this means that speculators should be looking for opportunities and producers need to look to lock up some prices. Give me a call for some ideas. In particular, producers looking to hedge all or a portion of their production may be rather interested in some of the options / options-futures strategies that I am currently using.

In my mind there has to be a balance. Neither technical nor fundamental analysis alone is enough to be consistent. Please give me a call for a trade recommendation, and we can put together a trade strategy tailored to your needs. Be safe!

Ted Seifried (312) 277-0113 or tseifried@zaner.com

Additional charts, studies, and more of my commentary can be found at: http://markethead.com/2.0/free_trial.asp?ap=tseifrie


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