Grain Futures Update

News & commentary on Grain Futures markets including wheat, soybeans, corn & more.

Grain Futures Update is a blog dedicated to bringing updates, news and commentary on grain futures markets including the commodities wheat, corn, soybeans and more.

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HOT AND DRY WEATHER FEARS ABATED CAUSING SHARP CORRECTIONS LED BY THE WHEAT COMPLEX

Posted on 7/26/2017 6:36:00 AM by: Rick Alexander, VP, Trading @ Zaner. 312-277-0107.

 

Higher close for rough rice while lower closes for Minneapolis, Kansas City and Chicago wheat along with oats, corn, soybeans, soybean meal and soybean oil. REMEMBER MY SIGNALS ARE FOR LONGER TERM TRENDS WHILE MOST OF MY TRADING RELIES ON SHORTER TERM SIGNALS WHICH YOU WILL HAVE TO CONTACT ME FOR. A surprising change in the weather forecasts for more rain and cooler temperatures have caused a massive correction in the grain complex. I've been through this before and what sticks out in my mind is one year where a two month forecast of hot and dry weather came out followed two days later by rain for the rest of the summer. As Chuck Berry once sang "You never can tell".  Still, how much damage has really been done? Our hedge department has been hearing mostly bad news from farmers around the Midwest while the government reports haven't been as bleak. Of course, the updated weather forecasts are a factor but how much of it will be too late?  I'm afraid we won't really know the answer until harvest making this summer more volatile for the grain complex than normal. Once again I haven't changed my mind about selling Chicago wheat and to lesser extent KC on rallies using technical indicators and/or options. Minneapolis has dropped a dollar twenty over the last several weeks culminating in its worst low and close since June 29th. Also, looking at the chart below, I see what looks like a failed BULL TRIANGLE. Then again, how much can the spring wheat crop will be too late to come back? There is also little support down to the 550 area. KC and Chicago have dropped over a dollar and now are in their respective support areas making their lowest low and close since June 26th and 29th respectively. Oats have been consolidating for 3 1/2 weeks needing to hold the 275 area in my opinion. Meanwhile corn had its worst close since June 29th while remaining in a major support area that it knows well for the last year! I am, for now, removing my buy signal .The beans and meal have been consolidating while the oil remains bullish mainly due to, in my opinion, unwinding of meal/oil spreads. Beans have support around 970 and meal 320. The complex has had a sharp downward correction since my last report but still remains in an uptrend overall in my opinion. Also keep in mind that the beans and meal still have unfilled gaps from the end of June that, while don't have to be filled, usually are sooner or later. Also, I would like to see oil close over 3440. BUY SIGNALS FOR MINNEAPOLIS, KANSAS CITY AND CHICAGO WHEAT ALONG WITH OATS, ROUGH RICE, SOYBEANS, SOYBEAN MEAL AND SOYBEAN OIL. For additional charts, quotes, news, commentary & more, sign up for a FREE 30 -day trial to markethead.com.

 

 

 

 


HOT AND DRY WEATHER FEARS ABATED CAUSING SHARP CORRECTIONS LED BY THE WHEAT COMPLEX

Posted on 7/26/2017 6:29:08 AM by: Rick Alexander, VP, Trading @ Zaner. 312-277-0107.

 

Higher close for rough rice while lower closes for Minneapolis, Kansas City and Chicago wheat along with oats, corn, soybeans, soybean meal and soybean oil. REMEMBER MY SIGNALS ARE FOR LONGER TERM TRENDS WHILE MOST OF MY TRADING RELIES ON SHORTER TERM SIGNALS WHICH YOU WILL HAVE TO CONTACT ME FOR. A surprising change in the weather forecasts for more rain and cooler temperatures have caused a massive correction in the grain complex. I've been through this before and what sticks out in my mind is one year where a two month forecast of hot and dry weather came out followed two days later by rain for the rest of the summer. As Chuck Berry once sang "You never can tell".  Still, how much damage has really been done? Our hedge department has been hearing mostly bad news from farmers around the Midwest while the government reports haven't been as bleak. Of course, the updated weather forecasts are a factor but how much of it will be too late?  I'm afraid we won't really know the answer until harvest making this summer more volatile for the grain complex than normal. Once again I haven't changed my mind about selling Chicago wheat and to lesser extent KC on rallies using technical indicators and/or options. Minneapolis has dropped a dollar twenty over the last several weeks culminating in its worst low and close sine June 29th. Also, looking at the chart below, I see what looks like a failed BULL TRIANGLE. Then again, how much can the spring wheat crop will be too late to come back? There is also little support down to the 550 area. KC and Chicago have dropped over a dollar and now are in their respective support areas making their lowest low and close since June 26th and 29th respectively. Oats have been consolidating for 3 1/2 weeks needing to hold the 275 area in my opinion. Meanwhile corn had its worst close since June 29th while remaining in a major support area that it knows well for the last year! I am, for now, removing my buy signal .The beans and meal have been consolidating while the oil remains bullish mainly do to, in my opinion, unwinding of meal/oil spreads. Beans have support around 970 and meal 320. complex has had a sharp downward correction since my last report but still remains in an uptrend overall in my opinion. Also keep in mind that the beans and meal still have unfilled gaps from the end of June that, while don't have to be filled, usually are sooner or later. Also, I would like to see oil close over 3440. BUY SIGNALS FOR MINNEAPOLIS, KANSAS CITY AND CHICAGO WHEAT ALONG WITH OATS, ROUGH RICE, SOYBEANS, SOYBEAN MEAL AND SOYBEAN OIL. For additional charts, quotes, news, commentary & more, sign up for a FREE 30 -day trial to markethead.com.

 

 

 

 


THE FUNDAMENTALS DON'T SEEM TO MATCH UP TO WHAT MANY FARMERS ARE SAYING!

Posted on 7/19/2017 6:29:08 AM by: Rick Alexander, VP, Trading @ Zaner. 312-277-0107.

 

Higher closes for Minneapolis wheat, oats, rough rice, soybeans, soybean meal and soybean oil while lower for Kansas City and Chicago wheat. REMEMBER MY SIGNALS ARE FOR LONGER TERM TRENDS WHILE MOST OF MY TRADING RELIES ON SHORTER TERM SIGNALS WHICH YOU WILL HAVE TO CONTACT ME FOR. The government reports have show so far that the grain crops while distressed in many areas due to drought and wet conditions depending on what the weather is at any given time, our hedge department has been hearing mostly bad news from farmers around the Midwest. I'm talking about extreme drought conditions in many areas, the vegetation health monitor not being good in many areas, low nitrogen levels, sidewall compaction for soybeans and the acres that are irrigated being okay but not great for the crops. That's just part of what we've been hearing directly from farmers. If this difference between the USDA and what we've been hearing keeps up, then we will all probably have to wait until harvest to get the actual facts of what really has happened. The drought conditions in key spring wheat states continues to play with the spring wheat as evidenced by Minneapolis wheat's rise overall even with its retracement lower over the last week or so do to increased rain in the forecasts along with the market probably being overbought. I still expect a test of its high on July 2nd. With that being said I haven't changed my mind about selling Chicago wheat and to less extent KC on rallies using technical indicators and/or options. Finally Chicago and KC filled their gaps last Friday. Last week's WASDE report was slightly bullish for beans while slightly bearish for wheat and corn but weather continues to be the overriding factor. Oats still look like they're in a possible BULL PENNANT or TRIANGLE. The oat chart continues to show a strong looking bull market at this time. Meanwhile rough rice is still in a perfectly looking bull market and should test its June 30th high. It would need to close below eleven dollars for me to change my mind on its direction. The bean complex has had a sharp downward correction since my last report but still remains in an uptrend overall in my opinion. Also keep in mind that the beans and meal still have unfilled gaps from the end of June that, while don't have to be filled, usually are sooner or later. Also, I would like to see oil close over 3440. BUY SIGNALS FOR MINNEAPOLIS, KANSAS CITY AND CHICAGO WHEAT ALONG WITH OATS, ROUGH RICE.  CORN, SOYBEANS, SOYBEAN MEAL AND SOYBEAN OIL. For additional charts, quotes, news, commentary & more, sign up for a FREE 30 -day trial to markethead.com.

 

 

 

 

 


THE FUNDAMENTALS DON'T SEEM TO MATCH UP TO WHAT MANY FARMERS ARE SAYING!

Posted on 7/19/2017 6:28:54 AM by: Rick Alexander, VP, Trading @ Zaner. 312-277-0107.

 

Higher closes for Minneapolis wheat, oats, rough rice, soybeans, soybean meal and soybean oil while lower for Kansas City and Chicago wheat. REMEMBER MY SIGNALS ARE FOR LONGER TERM TRENDS WHILE MOST OF MY TRADING RELIES ON SHORTER TERM SIGNALS WHICH YOU WILL HAVE TO CONTACT ME FOR. The government reports have show so far that the grain crops while distressed in many areas due to drought and wet conditions depending on what the weather is at any given time, our hedge department has been hearing mostly bad news from farmers around the Midwest. I'm talking about extreme drought conditions in many areas, the vegetation health monitor not being good in many areas, low nitrogen levels, sidewall compaction for soybeans and the acres that are irrigated being okay but not great for the crops. That's just part of what we've been hearing directly from farmers. If this difference between the USDA and what we've been hearing keeps up, then we will all probably have to wait until harvest to get the actual facts of what really has happened. The drought conditions in key spring wheat states continues to play with the spring wheat as evidenced by Minneapolis wheat's rise overall even with its retracement lower over the last week or so do to increased rain in the forecasts along with the market probably being overbought. I still expect a test of its high on July 2nd. With that being said I haven't changed my mind about selling Chicago wheat and to less extent KC on rallies using technical indicators and/or options. Finally Chicago and KC filled their gaps last Friday. Last week's WASDE report was slightly bullish for beans while slightly bearish for wheat and corn but weather continues to be the overriding factor. Oats still look like they're in a possible BULL PENNANT or TRIANGLE. The oat chart continues to show a strong looking bull market at this time. Meanwhile rough rice is still in a perfectly looking bull market and should test its June 30th high. It would need to close below eleven dollars for me to change my mind on its direction. The bean complex has had a sharp downward correction since my last report but still remains in an uptrend overall in my opinion. Also keep in mind that the beans and meal still have unfilled gaps from the end of June that, while don't have to be filled, usually are sooner or later. Also, I would like to see oil close over 3440. BUY SIGNALS FOR MINNEAPOLIS, KANSAS CITY AND CHICAGO WHEAT ALONG WITH OATS, ROUGH RICE.  CORN, SOYBEANS, SOYBEAN MEAL AND SOYBEAN OIL. For additional charts, quotes, news, commentary & more, sign up for a FREE 30 -day trial to markethead.com.

 

 

 

 

 


THE FUNDAMENTALS DON'T SEEM TO MATCH UP TO WHAT MANY FARMERS ARE SAYING!

Posted on 7/18/2017 12:48:54 PM by: Rick Alexander, VP, Trading @ Zaner. 312-277-0107.

 

Higher closes for Minneapolis, Kansas City and Chicago wheat along with oats, rough rice, soybeans, soybean meal and soybean oil but one tick lower for corn. REMEMBER MY SIGNALS ARE FOR LONGER TERM TRENDS WHILE MOST OF MY TRADING RELIES ON SHORTER TERM SIGNALS WHICH YOU WILL HAVE TO CONTACT ME FOR. In my last report I gave incorrect wheat stocks information from wrongly overhearing a broker from our hedge department. I didn't confirm what I heard and am completely in the wrong with no excuse. It won't happen again. The United States actually has around 50 % of wheat in storage to cover a year while the world is around 35% and could be facing its first deficit since 2012-2013. Also, we don't even know how good the quality of wheat is for feed! This unusual grain rally lead by Spring Wheat prices is a cause for concern but I still believe it could lead to and opportunity for selling Chicago wheat. The only problem is where and, if the situation arises, I plan on using my technical indicators to probe for a possible top when that happens. The drought conditions in key spring wheat states continues to play with the spring wheat as evidenced by Minneapolis wheat's second highest close of its entire move while KC's and Chicago's since June 2016. Finally, I see possible BULL PENNANTS for all three not to mention the WASDE REPORT coming out. Oats also could be in a BULL PENNANT while making its second highest close since coming on the board. Meanwhile rough rice made a new CONTRACT HIGH AND CLOSE while in a perfectly looking bull market and, like the other grains mentioned above, nowhere near a support area. However, corn made a new CONTRACT HIGH before settling lower in REVERSAL TYPE ACTION although one by one tick! Then again, for the long term corn gave me a BUY SIGNAL after settling above 410 on Monday. Now all I see is major support nearby as seen below. The beans and meal had their best highs and closes since  2014 along with oil since this last March which now give me BUY SIGNALS for the meal. I want to see a close over 3440 instead of 3400 for the oil however. BUY SIGNALS FOR MINNEAPOLIS, KANSAS CITY AND CHICAGO WHEAT ALONG WITH OATS, ROUGH RICE.  CORN, SOYBEANS, SOYBEAN MEAL AND SOYBEAN OIL. For additional charts, quotes, news, commentary & more, sign up for a FREE 30 -day trial to markethead.com.

 

 

 

 

 


WASDE REPORT ON WEDNESDAY + MY APOLOGY FOR ERRONEOUS WHEAT STOCK COMMENTS

Posted on 7/12/2017 6:38:04 AM by: Rick Alexander, VP, Trading @ Zaner. 312-277-0107.

 

Higher closes for Minneapolis, Kansas City and Chicago wheat along with oats, rough rice, soybeans, soybean meal and soybean oil but one tick lower for corn. REMEMBER MY SIGNALS ARE FOR LONGER TERM TRENDS WHILE MOST OF MY TRADING RELIES ON SHORTER TERM SIGNALS WHICH YOU WILL HAVE TO CONTACT ME FOR. In my last report I gave incorrect wheat stocks information from wrongly overhearing a broker from our hedge department. I didn't confirm what I heard and am completely in the wrong with no excuse. It won't happen again. The United States actually has around 50 % of wheat in storage to cover a year while the world is around 35% and could be facing its first deficit since 2012-2013. Also, we don't even know how good the quality of wheat is for feed! This unusual grain rally lead by Spring Wheat prices is a cause for concern  but I still believe it could lead to and opportunity for selling Chicago wheat. The only problem is where and, if the situation arises, I plan on using my technical indicators to probe for a possible top when that happens. The drought conditions in key spring wheat states continues to play with the spring wheat as evidenced by Minneapolis wheat's second highest close of its entire move while KC's and Chicago's since June 2016. Finally, I see possible BULL PENNANTS for all three not to mention the WASDE REPORT coming out. Oats also could be in a BULL PENNANT while making its second highest close since coming on the board. Meanwhile rough rice made a new CONTRACT HIGH AND CLOSE while in a perfectly looking bull market and, like the other grains mentioned above, nowhere near a support area. However, corn made a new CONTRACT HIGH before settling lower in REVERSAL TYPE ACTION although one by one tick! Then again, for the long term corn gave me a BUY SIGNAL after settling above 410 on Monday. Now all I see is major support nearby as seen below. The beans and meal had their best highs and closes since  2014 along with oil since this last March which now give me BUY SIGNALS for the meal. I want to see a close over 3440 instead of 3400 for the oil however. BUY SIGNALS FOR MINNEAPOLIS, KANSAS CITY AND CHICAGO WHEAT ALONG WITH OATS, ROUGH RICE.  CORN, SOYBEANS, SOYBEAN MEAL AND SOYBEAN OIL. For additional charts, quotes, news, commentary & more, sign up for a FREE 30 -day trial to markethead.com.

 


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