Grain Futures Update

News & commentary on Grain Futures markets including wheat, soybeans, corn & more.

Grain Futures Update is a blog dedicated to bringing updates, news and commentary on grain futures markets including the commodities wheat, corn, soybeans and more.

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05/19/2015 Corn and beans have a sell signal

Posted on 5/21/2015 1:33:01 PM by: Larry Baer, Market Strategist @ Zaner. 312-277-0112.

Call me for trade



05/19/2015 Corn and beans have a sell signal

Posted on 5/20/2015 1:29:32 PM by: Larry Baer, Market Strategist @ Zaner. 312-277-0112.

Call me for trade



REMOVING SELL SIGNALS FOR WHEAT COMPLEX (SHORT TERM ONLY)

Posted on 5/20/2015 6:33:19 AM by: Rick Alexander, VP, Trading @ Zaner. 312-277-0107.

WE HAVE A VERY GOOD HEDGING DEPARTMENT HEADED BY TED SEIFRIED. WHY NOT TALK TO HIM OR ANY OF OUR OTHER HEDGING BROKERS. NO ONE WILL PRESSURE YOU AND WHAT HAVE YOU GOT TO LOSE? I'VE BEEN A LICENSED FUTURES BROKER FOR  OVER 41 YEARS AND TRUST NO ONE MORE THAN TED AND HIS GROUP.

 

LOOKING FOR A WHEAT SPREAD THAT HAS HISTORICALLY DONE WELL TRADING OFF ITS PARAMETERS, THEN GIVE ME A CALL!

Lower closes for oats, rough rice, corn, soybeans, soybean meal and soybean oil along with Minneapolis, Kansas City and Chicago wheat.  A lot has happened technically with the wheat complex since I last wrote my comments. Last Thursday the wheat closed sharply higher (best highs and closes since early to the middle of April) breaking through resistance areas across the board making my sell signals a little shaky at this time. The problem is now the entire complex is in strong looking resistance areas and not a good place to buy as possibly evidenced by yesterday's action. On the other hand Minneapolis's close over 565 1/2, KC's over 530 and Chicago's over 505 are all potentially good signs. For at least the short term I'm removing my sell sells but the long term trend is still obviously down. I am going to stand aside as far as my signals are concerned but if you want to dabble on the long side, then buy Minneapolis under 540, KC under 510 and Chicago under 485. Use their lows (under) for stops and their present resistances areas for profit objectives. Minneapolis's resistance is from 560 up to around 595 but I would need to see a close over 600 to feel more comfortable about a possible major turnaround. For KC but I see 550 to 585 but would also use a close over 600 for a potential major turnaround. Finally, for Chicago use 505 to 535 and a close over 550. All these prices for possible turnarounds are conservative but really need to be since the long term trend for the wheat complex still remains down,.Oats have also had a nice retracement rally since May 5th but, like the rest of the grain complex still remain bearish overall. However, the oats (on Monday highest high in over 3 weeks) don't look as good as the wheat at this time and should test their lows off the technicals. Rice has also had a rally but really continues to look very weak and shows little sign of going much higher before testing its lows. Corn was looking like a possible small bottoming formation but Tuesday's action hurt its formation. Still, corn has been attempting to hold over the last several weeks while still in a major downtrend. I still feel corn has a better chance of holding than the bean complex but let's first see which way it breaks out of the consolidation pattern shown below. In other words a close over 370 or under 350 and then over 400 for the longer term. The bean complex just looks down as you can see below. Acreage estimates continue to be bearish along with the South America crops. Beans made their worst low and close since early October while the meal continues to look weak. Oil made its highest high since Jan. 16th and then closed down including the last couple of trading sessions. BUY SIGNAL FOR SOYBEAN OIL. SELL SIGNALS FOR CORN, ROUGH RICE, SOYBEANS AND SOYBEAN MEAL. For additional charts, quotes, news, commentary & more, sign up forfor a FREE 30 -day trial to markethead.com.

  

 


REMOVING SELL SIGNALS FOR WHEAT COMPLEX (SHORT TERM ONLY)

Posted on 5/20/2015 6:32:59 AM by: Rick Alexander, VP, Trading @ Zaner. 312-277-0107.

WE HAVE A VERY GOOD HEDGING DEPARTMENT HEADED BY TED SEIFRIED. WHY NOT TALK TO HIM OR ANY OF OUR OTHER HEDGING BROKERS. NO ONE WILL PRESSURE YOU AND WHAT HAVE YOU GOT TO LOSE? I'VE BEEN A LICENSED FUTURES BROKER FOR  OVER 41 YEARS AND TRUST NO ONE MORE THAN TED AND HIS GROUP.

 

LOOKING FOR A WHEAT SPREAD THAT HAS HISTORICALLY DONE WELL TRADING OFF ITS PARAMETERS, THEN GIVE ME A CALL!

Lower closes for oats, rough rice, corn, soybeans, soybean meal and soybean oil along with Minneapolis, Kansas City and Chicago wheat.  A lot has happened technically with the wheat complex since I last wrote my comments. Last Thursday the wheat closed sharply higher (best highs and closes since early to the middle of April) breaking through resistance areas across the board making my sell signals a little shaky at this time. The problem is now the entire complex is in strong looking resistance areas and not a good place to buy as possibly evidenced by yesterday's action. On the other hand Minneapolis's close over 565 1/2, KC's over 530 and Chicago's over 505 are all potentially good signs. For at least the short term I'm removing my sell sells but the long term trend is still obviously down. I am going to stand aside as far as my signals are concerned but if you want to dabble on the long side, then buy Minneapolis under 540, KC under 510 and Chicago under 485. Use their lows (under) for stops and their present resistances areas for profit objectives. Minneapolis's resistance is from 560 up to around 595 but I would need to see a close over 600 to feel more comfortable about a possible major turnaround. For KC but I see 550 to 585 but would also use a close over 600 for a potential major turnaround. Finally, for Chicago use 505 to 535 and a close over 550. All these prices for possible turnarounds are conservative but really need to be since the long term trend for the wheat complex still remains down,.Oats have also had a nice retracement rally since May 5th but, like the rest of the grain complex still remain bearish overall. However, the oats (on Monday highest high in over 3 weeks) don't look as good as the wheat at this time and should test their lows off the technicals. Rice has also had a rally but really continues to look very weak and shows little sign of going much higher before testing its lows. Corn was looking like a possible small bottoming formation but Tuesday's action hurt its formation. Still, corn has been attempting to hold over the last several weeks while still in a major downtrend. I still feel corn has a better chance of holding than the bean complex but let's first see which way it breaks out of the consolidation pattern shown below. In other words a close over 370 or under 350 and then over 400 for the longer term. The bean complex just looks down as you can see below. Acreage estimates continue to be bearish along with the South America crops. Beans made their worst low and close since early October while the meal continues to look weak. Oil made its highest high since Jan. 16th and then closed down including the last couple of trading sessions. BUY SIGNAL FOR SOYBEAN OIL. SELL SIGNALS FOR CORN, ROUGH RICE, SOYBEANS AND SOYBEAN MEAL. For additional charts, quotes, news, commentary & more, sign up forfor a FREE 30 -day trial to markethead.com.

  

 


REMOVING SELL SIGNALS FOR WHEAT COMPLEX (SHORT TERM ONLY)

Posted on 5/20/2015 6:32:50 AM by: Rick Alexander, VP, Trading @ Zaner. 312-277-0107.

WE HAVE A VERY GOOD HEDGING DEPARTMENT HEADED BY TED SEIFRIED. WHY NOT TALK TO HIM OR ANY OF OUR OTHER HEDGING BROKERS. NO ONE WILL PRESSURE YOU AND WHAT HAVE YOU GOT TO LOSE? I'VE BEEN A LICENSED FUTURES BROKER FOR  OVER 41 YEARS AND TRUST NO ONE MORE THAN TED AND HIS GROUP.

 

LOOKING FOR A WHEAT SPREAD THAT HAS HISTORICALLY DONE WELL TRADING OFF ITS PARAMETERS, THEN GIVE ME A CALL!

Lower closes for oats, rough rice, corn, soybeans, soybean meal and soybean oil along with Minneapolis, Kansas City and Chicago wheat.  A lot has happened technically with the wheat complex since I last wrote my comments. Last Thursday the wheat closed sharply higher (best highs and closes since early to the middle of April) breaking through resistance areas across the board making my sell signals a little shaky at this time. The problem is now the entire complex is in strong looking resistance areas and not a good place to buy as possibly evidenced by yesterday's action. On the other hand Minneapolis's close over 565 1/2, KC's over 530 and Chicago's over 505 are all potentially good signs. For at least the short term I'm removing my sell sells but the long term trend is still obviously down. I am going to stand aside as far as my signals are concerned but if you want to dabble on the long side, then buy Minneapolis under 540, KC under 510 and Chicago under 485. Use their lows (under) for stops and their present resistances areas for profit objectives. Minneapolis's resistance is from 560 up to around 595 but I would need to see a close over 600 to feel more comfortable about a possible major turnaround. For KC but I see 550 to 585 but would also use a close over 600 for a potential major turnaround. Finally, for Chicago use 505 to 535 and a close over 550. All these prices for possible turnarounds are conservative but really need to be since the long term trend for the wheat complex still remains down,.Oats have also had a nice retracement rally since May 5th but, like the rest of the grain complex still remain bearish overall. However, the oats (on Monday highest high in over 3 weeks) don't look as good as the wheat at this time and should test their lows off the technicals. Rice has also had a rally but really continues to look very weak and shows little sign of going much higher before testing its lows. Corn was looking like a possible small bottoming formation but Tuesday's action hurt its formation. Still, corn has been attempting to hold over the last several weeks while still in a major downtrend. I still feel corn has a better chance of holding than the bean complex but let's first see which way it breaks out of the consolidation pattern shown below. In other words a close over 370 or under 350 and then over 400 for the longer term. The bean complex just looks down as you can see below. Acreage estimates continue to be bearish along with the South America crops. Beans made their worst low and close since early October while the meal continues to look weak. Oil made its highest high since Jan. 16th and then closed down including the last couple of trading sessions. BUY SIGNAL FOR SOYBEAN OIL. SELL SIGNALS FOR CORN, ROUGH RICE, SOYBEANS AND SOYBEAN MEAL. For additional charts, quotes, news, commentary & more, sign up forfor a FREE 30 -day trial to markethead.com.

  

 


Soybeans set New Lows for the Year

Posted on 5/19/2015 4:44:46 PM by: Ted Seifried, VP, Ag Hedging @ Zaner. 312-277-0113.

Despite some positive old crop soybean news today, soybeans (old and new crop) set new lows for the year.  An export sales announcement and better then expected export inspections were supportive but outside markets and an otherwise bearish fundamental backdrop were too much weight for soybeans to bear.  Is this the start of a new leg lower in soybeans or will they find a way to come back as only soybeans can?

Interestingly, new yearly lows in soybeans came on a day where bull spreading was active in soybeans.  The relative strength in front could have been helped by the positive export news.  However, it may go a bit deeper than that.  While the old crop soybean supplies remain abundant, the projected ending stocks figure has been steadily declining for months due to stronger than expected crush and export demand.  At the same time the outlook for new crop soybeans continues to get more and more bearish.  Planting progress in soybeans is well above the 5-year average pace and a wetter forecast may still cause some corn acres to switch to soybeans.

I have resisted the idea that we would see 86+ million acres of soybeans for months now, but I am starting to soften on this idea.  With planting delays expected in the next two weeks it may be difficult to get the rest of the corn crop planted and much of this acreage could get switched to soybeans last minute.  Also, a hard frost in the Dakotas early this week could mean that some corn acres will need to get replanted, and if this is the case it may be too late to plant corn and this acreage could also go to soybeans.

Last week we saw a large and widely followed private analyst come out with a high 87+ million acre estimate.  While I do believe that soybean acres could be increasing I am still reluctant to add 2.4-2.8 million acres at this point.  However, if I were to plug 87.8 million soybean acres into the USDA balance sheet we saw last week we get a 605 million bushel carry over.  Now, this is leaving everything else on the balance sheet unchanged which would be unlikely.  If the USDA were to raise acreage and therefore production they would also likely raise demand numbers as well.  This could leave us with somewhere between a 565-595 million bushel new crop ending stocks number which is still massive.

Going forward it might be hard to turn the new crop soybean fundamentals positive.  Certainly a major weather issue would have a positive impact on soybeans, but with such a large planted acreage figure it would have to be damaging and wide spread.  Old crop soybeans could help support the soybean complex, but it would still take a lot of unexpected demand to shrink the ending stocks estimate to tight levels.  Outside markets are always a factor in soybeans so there could be something there that could turn the tide.  For now though, the path of least resistance seems to be to the downside especially for new crop soybeans.

Please give us a call if you would like more info on the strategies we are using or if you would like to set up an account to put a plan in action.  Ted Seifried - (312) 277-0113.  Also, feel free to give me a call or shoot me an email if you would like to talk about your marketing plan, the markets, weather, or just to visit.  Follow me on twitter @thetedspread if you like. 

July Corn Daily chart:

July Soybeans Daily chart:

July Wheat Daily chart:

Producers looking to hedge all or a portion of their production may be rather interested in some of the options / options-futures strategies that I am currently using.

In my mind there has to be a balance. Neither technical nor fundamental analysis alone is enough to be consistent. Please give me a call for a trade recommendation, and we can put together a trade strategy tailored to your needs. Be safe!

Ted Seifried (312) 277-0113 or tseifried@zaner.com

Additional charts, studies, and more of my commentary can be found at: http://markethead.com/2.0/free_trial.asp?ap=tseifrie


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