Grain Futures Update

News & commentary on Grain Futures markets including wheat, soybeans, corn & more.

Grain Futures Update is a blog dedicated to bringing updates, news and commentary on grain futures markets including the commodities wheat, corn, soybeans and more.

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Futures, options and forex trading is speculative in nature and involves substantial risk of loss.  These recommendations are a solicitation for entering into derivatives transactions.  All known news and events have already been factored into the price of the underlying derivatives discussed.  From time to time persons affiliated with Zaner, or its associated companies, may have positions in recommended and other derivatives.


02/26/2015 Beans have a buy signal

Posted on 3/3/2015 1:25:12 PM by: Larry Baer, Market Strategist @ Zaner. 312-277-0112.

Call me for trade

 

 


02/19/2015 Corn & Beans have a buy signal

Posted on 2/19/2015 1:19:17 PM by: Larry Baer, Market Strategist @ Zaner. 312-277-0112.

Call me for trade

 

 


Options play: The reliability of the Symmetrical Triangle

Posted on 2/18/2015 12:02:56 PM by: Matt McKinney, Market Strategist @ Zaner. 312-277-0115.

Direct-312-277-0115, http://www.mmckinneyfutures.com/

TRADING COMMODITY FUTURES AND OPTIONS INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS AND MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR CIRCUMSTANCES, KNOWLEDGE AND FINANCIAL RESOURCES.

 

Options play: The reliability of the Symmetrical Triangle

This article shows two examples of how the Symmetrical Formation recently proved itself as a reliable technical formation to me.

 

Here is the daily soybean chart that formed a Symmetrical Triangle that was breached to the upside. You can see that after the market broke higher out of the triangle it then trended higher for another 30 cents/bushel and could still move higher yet. However, it doesn't need to in order to prove it's reliability to me as a great technical formation.

 

Daily March soybean chart

 

On the daily gold chart below we see the see the Symmetrical Triangle work in the opposite fashion to the downside. As the bottom of the triangle was breached lower we then saw gold prices fall another $56/ounce or so and it's still trending lower as it continues to take out new areas of support. Again gold does not need to fall further in order for the Symmetrical Triangle to prove it's reliability.

 

Daily April gold chart

 

 

 

OPTION PLAY:

For exact details on option strategies, on how to recognize these formations, option months, expiration dates, strike prices, and number of positions feel free to contact me at 312-277-0115 or mmckinney@zaner.com .

It is also important to note that I am not married to a market, but to technical trends and formations. I believe that we are on the verge of lots of upcoming trends and formations. So get in touch with me and I'll show you what could be right around the corner in terms of technical formations and trending markets and how to trade them. There could be upcoming formations and trends in the grains, indices, financials, precious metals, softs and more.

 

 

FREE QUOTE- When Michael Jordan was told by Tex Winter, that there is no "I" in team, Michael Jordan smiled and said , "yeah, but there is an I in win" - Michael Jordan and his coach Tex Winter 

 

 

 

FUTURES, OPTIONS AND FOREX TRADING IS SPECULATIVE IN NATURE AND INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS. THESE RECOMMENDATIONS ARE A SOLICITATION FOR ENTERING INTO DERIVATIVES TRANSACTIONS. ALL KNOWN NEWS AND EVENTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN FACTORED INTO THE PRICE OF THE UNDERLYING DERIVATIVES DISCUSSED. FROM TIME TO TIME PERSONS AFFILIATED WITH ZANER, OR ITS ASSOCIATED COMPANIES, MAY HAVE POSITIONS IN RECOMMENDED AND OTHER DERIVATIVES.

FOR CUSTOMERS TRADING OPTIONS, THESE FUTURES CHARTS ARE PRESENTED FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. THEY ARE INTENDED TO SHOW HOW INVESTING IN OPTIONS CAN DEPEND ON THE UNDERDLYING FUTURES PRICES; SPECIFICALLY, WHETHER OR NOT AN OPTION PURCHASER IS BUYING AN IN-THE-MONEY, AT-THE-MONEY, OR OUT-OF-THE MONEY OPTION. FURTHERMORE, THE PURCHASER WILL BE ABLE TO DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT TO EXERCISE HIS RIGHT ON AN OPTION DEPENDING ON HOW THE OPTION'S STICKE PRICE COMPARES TO THE UNDERLYING FUTURE'S PRICE. THE FUTURES CHARTS ARE NOT INTENDED TO IMPLY THAT OPTION PRICES MOVE IN TANDEM WITH FUTURES PRICES. IN FACT OPTIONS PRICES MAY ONLY MOVE A LITTLE.

THE LIMITED RISK CHARACTERISTIC OF OPTIONS REFERS TO LONG OPTIONS ONLY AND REFERS TO THE AMOUNT OF THE LOSS, WHICH IS DEFINED AS THE PREMIUM PAID ON THE OPTION(S) PLUS FEES.


ARE THE WHEAT AND SOYBEAN COMPLEX ALONG WITH CORN POSSIBLY BOTTOMING?

Posted on 2/18/2015 6:24:43 AM by: Rick Alexander, VP, Trading @ Zaner. 312-277-0107.

WE HAVE A VERY GOOD HEDGING DEPARTMENT HEADED BY TED SEIFRIED. WHY NOT TALK TO HIM OR ANY OF OUR OTHER HEDGING BROKERS. NO ONE WILL PRESSURE YOU AND WHAT HAVE YOU GOT TO LOSE? I'VE BEEN A LICENSED FUTURES BROKER FOR 41 YEARS AND TRUST NO ONE MORE THAN TED AND HIS GROUP.

Higher closes for Minneapolis and Chicago wheat along with corn, rough rice, soybeans and soybean meal while lower for oats and soybean oil. If you look at the charts below you can see possible bottoming formations for a good majority of the grain complex really only excluding oats and possibly soybean oil. Although Minneapolis and Chicago wheat settled higher and were near their sessions lows, they still are in a possible bottoming formation no matter what the fundamental news has been. While KC could also b e in one it doesn't look as good as the former two do. Don't forget all have been in long term downtrends as has been mentioned many times before. I will give conservative price areas for potential breakouts in most of the grains mentioned today. Also, they will be based on the May contracts. Look at 595 and 600 for Minneapolis, 590 for KC and the 550 area for Chicago. I feel those price areas should suffice for now. To repeat from last week Minneapolis has been in a downtrend since May 2013 with its latest bear market for the shorter trend since Dec 2014. KC's bear market started back in May 2014 with its latest also since Dec. 2014 while Chicago's downtrend since Nov. 2012 along its shorter term since Dec. 2014. The world wheat crop is large while the lastest carry over figures were bearish. Of course we've had bumps along the way like the Ukraine situation but really not that many. With that being said the technical are beginning to show a rally may still be in store. So, now let's see. Resistance for all three remain just overhead also. The oats long term downtrend started June 2013 and the short one Oct. 2014 while showing no technical signs of turning around at this time. Rice's bear market started April 2014 and has continued to this day but are now in a possible bottoming formation also. I don't see and good resistance until 1220 and am focusing on 1100 (May) for a chance of a turnaround higher. Corn's long term bearish market started Dec. 2012 while the latest shorter one Oct. 2014 but now could be in a nice looking bottoming formation. I'm concentrating on a close over 400 (May) to verify a breakout in my opinion. The beans long term downward slide started Feb. 2013 and its short term the May 2014 but have given me a BUY SIGNAL today with its best high and close since the middle of January. Meal's long term downtrend started May May 2014 and short term Nov. 2014 while 336 is the key price area to watch after having its best close since Jan. 12th. It's also in a good looking possible bottoming formation. Oil's downtrend started Jan. 2013 the latest Nov. 2014. The oil has had a sharp move higher since late January but is now in a solid resistance area and hasn't show be a bottom yet. BUY SIGNAL FOR SOYBEANS, SELL SIGNALS FOR MINNEAPOLIS, KANSAS CITY AND CHICAGO WHEAT ALONG WITH CORN, ROUGH RICE, SOYBEAN MEAL AND SOYBEAN OIL. For additional charts, quotes, news, commentary & more, sign up for

                                                    


ARE THE WHEAT AND SOYBEAN COMPLEX ALONG WITH CORN POSSIBLY BOTTOMING?

Posted on 2/18/2015 6:24:34 AM by: Rick Alexander, VP, Trading @ Zaner. 312-277-0107.

WE HAVE A VERY GOOD HEDGING DEPARTMENT HEADED BY TED SEIFRIED. WHY NOT TALK TO HIM OR ANY OF OUR OTHER HEDGING BROKERS. NO ONE WILL PRESSURE YOU AND WHAT HAVE YOU GOT TO LOSE? I'VE BEEN A LICENSED FUTURES BROKER FOR 41 YEARS AND TRUST NO ONE MORE THAN TED AND HIS GROUP.

Higher closes for Minneapolis and Chicago wheat along with corn, rough rice, soybeans and soybean meal while lower for oats and soybean oil. If you look at the charts below you can see possible bottoming formations for a good majority of the grain complex really only excluding oats and possibly soybean oil. Although Minneapolis and Chicago wheat settled higher and were near their sessions lows, they still are in a possible bottoming formation no matter what the fundamental news has been. While KC could also b e in one it doesn't look as good as the former two do. Don't forget all have been in long term downtrends as has been mentioned many times before. I will give conservative price areas for potential breakouts in most of the grains mentioned today. Also, they will be based on the May contracts. Look at 595 and 600 for Minneapolis, 590 for KC and the 550 area for Chicago. I feel those price areas should suffice for now. To repeat from last week Minneapolis has been in a downtrend since May 2013 with its latest bear market for the shorter trend since Dec 2014. KC's bear market started back in May 2014 with its latest also since Dec. 2014 while Chicago's downtrend since Nov. 2012 along its shorter term since Dec. 2014. The world wheat crop is large while the lastest carry over figures were bearish. Of course we've had bumps along the way like the Ukraine situation but really not that many. With that being said the technical are beginning to show a rally may still be in store. So, now let's see. Resistance for all three remain just overhead also. The oats long term downtrend started June 2013 and the short one Oct. 2014 while showing no technical signs of turning around at this time. Rice's bear market started April 2014 and has continued to this day but are now in a possible bottoming formation also. I don't see and good resistance until 1220 and am focusing on 1100 (May) for a chance of a turnaround higher. Corn's long term bearish market started Dec. 2012 while the latest shorter one Oct. 2014 but now could be in a nice looking bottoming formation. I'm concentrating on a close over 400 (May) to verify a breakout in my opinion. The beans long term downward slide started Feb. 2013 and its short term the May 2014 but have given me a BUY SIGNAL today with its best high and close since the middle of January. Meal's long term downtrend started May May 2014 and short term Nov. 2014 while 336 is the key price area to watch after having its best close since Jan. 12th. It's also in a good looking possible bottoming formation. Oil's downtrend started Jan. 2013 the latest Nov. 2014. The oil has had a sharp move higher since late January but is now in a solid resistance area and hasn't show be a bottom yet. BUY SIGNAL FOR SOYBEANS, SELL SIGNALS FOR MINNEAPOLIS, KANSAS CITY AND CHICAGO WHEAT ALONG WITH CORN, ROUGH RICE, SOYBEAN MEAL AND SOYBEAN OIL. For additional charts, quotes, news, commentary & more, sign up for

                                                    


How Long will Soybean Demand Stay Strong?

Posted on 2/17/2015 4:43:53 PM by: Ted Seifried, VP, Ag Hedging @ Zaner. 312-277-0113.

As the South American soybean crop moves toward the finish line the question looms large as to how long demand for US soybeans will stay strong.  As we get into the third week of February demand indicators are still strong with export inspections and January crush numbers reflecting strong demand.  However, once the South American crop hits the market we could see a global demand shift to South America and there are questions about the crush as well.

Cash demand for soybeans has remained strong as we can see from a firming basis in most areas.  A brisk pace for exports and a record crush for the month of January has kept the cash market tight. In the next few weeks we will expect more of the same.  Strong cash markets could keep positive pressure on futures markets as well.  But, for how long?

As far as South America is concerned the latest estimates have Brazil approximately 34% harvested compared to near 50% on average.  Much of this is due to planting delay pushing harvest back in some areas. Going forward there is some rain delays in the forecast as well, but also times to work around the rain.  So harvest may progress slowly but as of right now it seems it will still progress.  Once South America is in full export swing it could mean much less export business for the US and could even mean some unshipped sales get switched to SA.  If this happens sooner rather then later it could make for a struggle to hit the current USDA export projections.  The longer it takes the more potential business we could see and the greater likely hood that the USDA is too low on their export estimate.  So, the next few weeks will be very important to see how this plays out.

The other question regarding soybean demand is the crush.  We saw a near record crush in December after a slow start.  The slow start for the crush was not due to lack of soybean meal or oil demand but rather due to the fact that we ran out of soybeans last year for the most part.  So, at this point the strong crush is playing catch up to fill pent up demand.  We are now about equal to where we were at this point last year.  The USDA is currently projecting a 61 million bushel increase in crush over last year, meaning we have some work to do to hit the USDA projection.  The question is will we crush soybeans at a faster pace from this point forward then we did last year.

I have to say the crush estimates are a cause for concern for me.  While crush numbers have been very strong in the last few months I am a little concerned that the relatively high price of soybean meal that we have seen since the beginning of the marketing year may be causing end users to look for alternatives, such as DDGs.  And there are certainly plenty of DDGs as ethanol production has been strong.  Soybean meal prices may at some point need to see lower prices to continue to encourage demand and keep the crush numbers strong.

The bottom line is that while soybean demand has been very strong to this point there are a few question marks for the months to come.  A huge, record South American crop may throw a wet blanket on our export sales and it remains to be seen if the crush will remain strong and live up to the USDA's expectations.  The next few weeks will be key in determining how soon South America will be able to get the export machine running on all cylinders.  Again, harvest delays could mean more business and a tighter balance sheet for the US but if they get product to port quickly our export demand may fall away quickly.

* Still no baby yet, but I will be out of the office for a little bit sometime soon as my wife and I are expecting our second child in the next day or two.  But I will be getting back to everyone as soon as I can.  Thanks for the understanding.

Feel free to give me a call or shoot me an email if you would like to talk about your marketing plan, the markets, weather, or just to visit.  Also, follow me on twitter @thetedspread if you like. 

March Corn Daily chart:

March Soybeans Daily chart:

March Wheat Daily chart:

All this means that speculators should be looking for opportunities and producers need to look to lock up some prices. Give me a call for some ideas. In particular, producers looking to hedge all or a portion of their production may be rather interested in some of the options / options-futures strategies that I am currently using.

In my mind there has to be a balance. Neither technical nor fundamental analysis alone is enough to be consistent. Please give me a call for a trade recommendation, and we can put together a trade strategy tailored to your needs. Be safe!

Ted Seifried (312) 277-0113 or tseifried@zaner.com

Additional charts, studies, and more of my commentary can be found at: http://markethead.com/2.0/free_trial.asp?ap=tseifrie


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