Grain Futures Update

News & commentary on Grain Futures markets including wheat, soybeans, corn & more.

Grain Futures Update is a blog dedicated to bringing updates, news and commentary on grain futures markets including the commodities wheat, corn, soybeans and more.

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NO UPDATE UNTIL NEXT WEEK

Posted on 11/26/2014 5:09:14 AM by: Rick Alexander, VP, Trading @ Zaner. 312-277-0107.

WE HAVE A VERY GOOD HEDGING DEPARTMENT HEADED BY TED SEIFRIED. WHY NOT TALK TO HIM OR ANY OF OUR OTHER HEDGING BROKERS. NO ONE WILL PRESSURE YOU AND WHAT HAVE YOU GOT TO LOSE? I'VE BEEN A LICENSED FUTURES BROKER FOR 41 YEARS AND TRUST NO ONE MORE THAN TED AND HIS GROUP.

Higher for rough rice, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil,  Minneapolis, Kansas City and Chicago wheat while lower for oats and corn. Minneapolis and KC are still basically in critical areas (long term downtrend still in tact) to hold but, could be in nice looking topping formations. Both are in resistance areas while the latter's is above 600.  I want to see Minneapolis close over 600 and KC 610 to feel better about a continued retracement rally. The Minneapolis/KC set back the last couple of sessions but short work higher technically although its sure has been a struggle to do so. Chicago still looks better and should test its 567 1/2 (Oct.) high. Oats fell for their six session in a row ending up with its lowest close since Oct.13th coming close to sell signal. Quite a lot of resistance resides above also.Rice settled higher for its fourth time in a row now at the lower end if a strong looking resistance area. This rally has partially been the result of a failed  bear pennant earlier in the week. Technically rice remains very bearish. Corn closed down but around nine cents from its session's high while in a possible topping formation. I still would like to see a close over 380 to confirm my buy signal and also hold the 360 area. The bean complex settled up still looking bullish except for oil at this time which has been in a sideways mode since  the middle of August expect for a spike up and back early in August.The July15/Dec15 meal/oil spreads continue to look higher technically but are nowhere near its high from Oct. 30th. BUY SIGNALS FOR CHICAGO WHEAT, CORN, SOYBEANS AND SOYMEAL. SELL SIGNALS FOR MINNEAPOLIS AND KANSAS CITY WHEAT. CALL FOR DETAILS.  For additional charts, quotes, news,  

 

 

  

 

 


NO UPDATE UNTIL NEXT WEEK

Posted on 11/26/2014 5:09:05 AM by: Rick Alexander, VP, Trading @ Zaner. 312-277-0107.

WE HAVE A VERY GOOD HEDGING DEPARTMENT HEADED BY TED SEIFRIED. WHY NOT TALK TO HIM OR ANY OF OUR OTHER HEDGING BROKERS. NO ONE WILL PRESSURE YOU AND WHAT HAVE YOU GOT TO LOSE? I'VE BEEN A LICENSED FUTURES BROKER FOR 41 YEARS AND TRUST NO ONE MORE THAN TED AND HIS GROUP.

Higher for rough rice, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil,  Minneapolis, Kansas City and Chicago wheat while lower for oats and corn. Minneapolis and KC are still basically in critical areas (long term downtrend still in tact) to hold but, could be in nice looking topping formations. Both are in resistance areas while the latter's is above 600.  I want to see Minneapolis close over 600 and KC 610 to feel better about a continued retracement rally. The Minneapolis/KC set back the last couple of sessions but short work higher technically although its sure has been a struggle to do so. Chicago still looks better and should test its 567 1/2 (Oct.) high. Oats fell for their six session in a row ending up with its lowest close since Oct.13th coming close to sell signal. Quite a lot of resistance resides above also.Rice settled higher for its fourth time in a row now at the lower end if a strong looking resistance area. This rally has partially been the result of a failed  bear pennant earlier in the week. Technically rice remains very bearish. Corn closed down but around nine cents from its session's high while in a possible topping formation. I still would like to see a close over 380 to confirm my buy signal and also hold the 360 area. The bean complex settled up still looking bullish except for oil at this time which has been in a sideways mode since  the middle of August expect for a spike up and back early in August.The July15/Dec15 meal/oil spreads continue to look higher technically but are nowhere near its high from Oct. 30th. BUY SIGNALS FOR CHICAGO WHEAT, CORN, SOYBEANS AND SOYMEAL. SELL SIGNALS FOR MINNEAPOLIS AND KANSAS CITY WHEAT. CALL FOR DETAILS.  For additional charts, quotes, news,  

 

 

  

 

 


11/21/2014 Soy Beans has a buy signal

Posted on 11/25/2014 1:19:53 PM by: Larry Baer, Market Strategist @ Zaner. 312-277-0112.

Call me for trade

 

 


Potential Head and Shoulders Tops Setting up in Grains

Posted on 11/25/2014 12:52:05 PM by: Ted Seifried, VP, Ag Hedging @ Zaner. 312-277-0113.

Grains have found strength in recent trade sessions with some pretty interesting chart patterns developing.  This means that the grains are at a cross roads leading to either a larger topping formation or a new leg higher in the bounce off of lows.  Fundamentally it is difficult to paint a bullish picture for corn or soybeans after record crops however it is also possible that the worst of the news is behind us.  So, what should we look for in grains going forward?
 
Corn, wheat and soybeans have been gaining strength since the beginning of October.  This comes at a strange time because harvest can often put pressure on prices.  This year we harvested record corn and soybean crops so the timing of the bounce off lows has been strange for grains.  However, there have been some underlying positive fundamentals as well.  Soybean and soybean meal demand has been strong and with tight stocks at the end of the last marketing year we have been slow to catch up.  Farmer selling has also been slower then expected as producers are not excited about selling crops below their cost of production.  Yet, the fact remains that there is a lot of corn and soybeans out there.
 
To a large extent soybean meal has been the leader to the upside.  With a 92 million bushel soybean carry over last marketing year (ending in September) we effectively ran out of soybeans to crush.  Demand remained strong and the tightness in the soybean meal market drove prices sharply higher and soybeans and corn followed.  While prices were going higher producers began to get more tight fisted on crops with the idea that if the market is going higher they will have a better chance to sell if they wait, and they have.
 
However, going forward things could change a bit.  The tight soy meal situation should be working itself out.  With record high crush margins and a record soybean crop crushers have all the incentive and all of the feedstock to produce soybean meal very aggressively.  At some point this may lead to an overproduction of soybean meal.  And, the slow movement in corn and soybeans on the cash market could be partially caused by the increase in prices.  To this point the market has tried "the carrot", trying to use higher prices to get crops out of the hands of the producer, with little success.  At some point the market may need to try "the stick" and use lower prices to get more cash movement.  Many times producers are more aggressive sellers on the way down as they are worried that prices could continue to fall.
 
A major factor of where prices are going longer-term could be South American weather.  If there were a weather issue in Brazil or Argentina that would put stress on crops and hurt yield potential this could translate in more demand for US crops.  A major production problem in South America could lead to price rationing here in the US.  Our current ending stocks projections are big, but not big enough to cover a large drop in SA production.  But, SA weather is looking pretty good right now.  The longer we go without a weather issue in SA the more potential there is that prices could fall under pressure again.
 
From a technical point of view we have a very interesting situation right now.  Corn, soybean and soybean meal charts all have the potential for a head and shoulders topping formation at the moment.  It is certainly possible that we break out to the upside and erase these topping formations, but I find it interesting that they are all doing this at the same time.  Head and shoulders formations generally carry a lot of weight with technical traders and grains markets as a whole.  We do not have to go back very far to see a good example of a head and shoulders formation putting in a top.  Back in April, May and June soybeans put in a very well defined head and shoulders formation right before breaking down and embarking on a trek to the lows.  So, this is a situation to be watched closely over this holiday week. 
 
Feel free to give me a call or shoot me an email if you would like to talk about your marketing plan, the markets, weather, or just to visit.  Also, follow me on twitter @thetedspread if that is your thing. 
 
December Corn Daily chart:

January Soybeans Daily chart:

December Wheat Daily chart:

All this means that speculators should be looking for opportunities and producers need to look to lock up some prices. Give me a call for some ideas. In particular, producers looking to hedge all or a portion of their production may be rather interested in some of the options / options-futures strategies that I am currently using.

In my mind there has to be a balance. Neither technical nor fundamental analysis alone is enough to be consistent. Please give me a call for a trade recommendation, and we can put together a trade strategy tailored to your needs. Be safe!

Ted Seifried (312) 277-0113 or tseifried@zaner.com

Additional charts, studies, and more of my commentary can be found at: http://markethead.com/2.0/free_trial.asp?ap=tseifrie


Corn makes new Highs on Heavy Volume

Posted on 11/25/2014 11:57:39 AM by: Ted Seifried, VP, Ag Hedging @ Zaner. 312-277-0113.

Corn was able to close at it's highest point since July in what continues to be an impressive rally despite a record corn harvest.  Corn has been gaining strength on a lack of producer selling, carry over strength from the soybean complex and the USDA lowering yield expectations.  Strength in corn, especially during harvest, has been encouraging but how high can corn go?
 
With the USDA unexpectedly cutting yield expectations on the November WASDE report the idea is that maybe the biggest balance sheet and the worst news is behind us at this point.  A dramatic change in weather is also causing concerns about harvesting the last 15% of the corn crop and causing logistical issues getting corn to end users.  In the mean time strength in soybeans and soybean meal has created some demand for DDGs and added some profit margin to ethanol production.
 
On the other hand export sales have been poor at a time of year where we would expect them to be very strong.  Some will argue that the record pace of soybean shipments is getting in the way of corn, but this is more of a shipping issue rather then a sales issue.  In other words, with a record corn crop we would still expect to be seeing very strong export sales for future delivery at this point despite soybean shipments dominating port terminals.  Unless, that is global end users either do not need our corn at higher prices or they believe they will be able to buy at lower prices in the future.
 
I can and have made a bullish case for corn longer term, and I do believe that corn might see higher prices going into the next growing season.  However, the timing of the current rally seems a bit suspect to me.  While I agree with the USDA that yield numbers had gotten a little too high and I also acknowledge that high meal prices will create more demand for corn for feed I also think the slow pace to exports is a big problem going forward.  The fact of the matter is that we have a huge, record corn crop to move and that will become more of an issue as winter sets in.  So far producers have been slow to sell because prices have been going up, but if prices were to turn lower in soybeans and meal we could start to see aggressive selling again.
 
Long term I have rather bullish thoughts about corn.  However, at this point we may have climbed too far too fast and left some global demand behind.  While we will need to "buy acres" in corn or put a big premium on the corn stocks we do have we should be more concerned with growing demand at the moment rather then destroying it with higher prices.  After all, if we kill export demand with higher prices what does it matter if we get the corn acreage next year or not?  The bottom line is that the rally off lows in corn has been a welcome sight especially for guys who had not gotten much of this years crop priced.  But, a word of caution - the fundamentals that brought us down to lows have not changed much and all it might take would be some lower prices to get producers selling again and this could snowball back down toward lows again.  The market has given producers 70 cents back on their unsold bushels of corn, be careful not to give it back later.
 
Feel free to give me a call or shoot me an email if you would like to talk about your marketing plan, the markets, weather, or just to visit.  Also, follow me on twitter @thetedspread if that is your thing. 
 
December Corn Daily chart:

January Soybeans Daily chart:

December Wheat Daily chart:

All this means that speculators should be looking for opportunities and producers need to look to lock up some prices. Give me a call for some ideas. In particular, producers looking to hedge all or a portion of their production may be rather interested in some of the options / options-futures strategies that I am currently using.

In my mind there has to be a balance. Neither technical nor fundamental analysis alone is enough to be consistent. Please give me a call for a trade recommendation, and we can put together a trade strategy tailored to your needs. Be safe!

Ted Seifried (312) 277-0113 or tseifried@zaner.com

Additional charts, studies, and more of my commentary can be found at: http://markethead.com/2.0/free_trial.asp?ap=tseifrie


11/21/2014 Soy Beans has a buy signal

Posted on 11/24/2014 1:31:33 PM by: Larry Baer, Market Strategist @ Zaner. 312-277-0112.

Call me for trade

 

 


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