Grain Futures Update

News & commentary on Grain Futures markets including wheat, soybeans, corn & more.

Grain Futures Update is a blog dedicated to bringing updates, news and commentary on grain futures markets including the commodities wheat, corn, soybeans and more.

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08/25 Soy Beans sell signal

Posted on 9/2/2014 2:11:00 PM by: Larry Baer, Market Strategist @ Zaner. 312-277-0112.

Call me for trade

 

 


ONLY UDATE ON WEDNESDAY

Posted on 9/2/2014 6:51:41 AM by: Rick Alexander, VP, Trading @ Zaner. 312-277-0107.

WE HAVE A VERY GOOD HEDGING DEPARTMENT HEADED BY TED SEIFRIED. WHY NOT TALK TO HIM OR ANY OF OUR OTHER HEDGING BROKERS. NO ONE WILL PRESSURE YOU AND WHAT HAVE YOU GOT TO LOSE? I'VE BEEN A LICENSED FUTURES BROKER FOR 41 YEARS AND TRUST NO ONE MORE THAN TED AND HIS GROUP

THIS IS OKAY FOR TODAY. NO UPDATE UNTIL NEXT WEEK

Higher closes for Chicago wheat and soybean oil while lower for oats, corn, Minneapolis and Kansas City wheat along with soybeans and soybean meal. We've seen the continued slowdown of the wheat complex with Minneapolis and KC showing little other signs of bottoming out but Chicago hasn't made a new low since July 29th. Minneapolis/KC spreads, however, continue to show signs of working higher but it sure has been a struggle trying to get Minneapolis to close over KC. Now that the harvest for wheat is almost complete there's not much more bearish news to affect at this complex. I would be careful of initiating any new short positions unless for hedging purposes. I just don't feel the action is worth the risk like in other markets at this time. Oats settled lower following through from Monday's reversal type action but the bullish trend is still in tact. I would look to go long somewhere under 340 where the bulk of good support resides. Rice settled lower now in a consolidation mode after a nice little run up last week. However, the overall trend is still down and I wouldn't begin to get excited unless I see a close over 1340 to begin with the, way the technicals look at this time. Corn had its worst low and close in over two weeks but has been basing over the last couple of months. Unless I see a new contract low and close, I wouldn't be inclined to add short positions now. Hedging concerns is a different story depending on each individual farmer's situation. That's where our hedging department would come into play. Since everybody knows the government is looking at record crops corn's action tells me it could be oversold at the moment and should not be sold unless we see a close under at 360. Our hedge department says many farmers have been holding on to corn from the previous year leaving little room for storage whereby farmers would be forced to sell a large part of their crops right away. The last cattle on feed report was bearish which can't hurt but won't be enough to help corn prices overall in my opinion. At least it may help stabilze the grains for a while. The beans (record crops forcast) and meal settled down while oil closed higher. The meal and meal/oil spreads have  given the bulls hope by consolidating over the last couple of months. The Nov. bean gap at 1132 1/2 that history says will most likely, but not always, be filled sooner or later has kept some traders nervous but the longer that gap remains the less likely they'll worry about it. I don't see much support below for the beans and oil but the Dec. meal does have strong looking support from 360 down to 340 (briefly penetrated).  In the end I still see the bean complex moving down while wheat and corn will keep slowing their pace down from now on. SELL SIGNALS FOR MINEAPOLIS, KANSAS CITY AND CHICAGO WHEAT ALONG WITH CORN, ROUGH RICE SOYBEANS, SOYBEAN MEAL AND SOYBEAN OIL. CALL FOR DETAILS.  For additional charts, quotes, news, commentary & more sign-up for a FREE 30-day trial to Market head.Com

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

  


ONLY UDATE ON WEDNESDAY

Posted on 9/2/2014 6:51:34 AM by: Rick Alexander, VP, Trading @ Zaner. 312-277-0107.

WE HAVE A VERY GOOD HEDGING DEPARTMENT HEADED BY TED SEIFRIED. WHY NOT TALK TO HIM OR ANY OF OUR OTHER HEDGING BROKERS. NO ONE WILL PRESSURE YOU AND WHAT HAVE YOU GOT TO LOSE? I'VE BEEN A LICENSED FUTURES BROKER FOR 41 YEARS AND TRUST NO ONE MORE THAN TED AND HIS GROUP

THIS IS OKAY FOR TODAY. NO UPDATE UNTIL NEXT WEEK

Higher closes for Chicago wheat and soybean oil while lower for oats, corn, Minneapolis and Kansas City wheat along with soybeans and soybean meal. We've seen the continued slowdown of the wheat complex with Minneapolis and KC showing little other signs of bottoming out but Chicago hasn't made a new low since July 29th. Minneapolis/KC spreads, however, continue to show signs of working higher but it sure has been a struggle trying to get Minneapolis to close over KC. Now that the harvest for wheat is almost complete there's not much more bearish news to affect at this complex. I would be careful of initiating any new short positions unless for hedging purposes. I just don't feel the action is worth the risk like in other markets at this time. Oats settled lower following through from Monday's reversal type action but the bullish trend is still in tact. I would look to go long somewhere under 340 where the bulk of good support resides. Rice settled lower now in a consolidation mode after a nice little run up last week. However, the overall trend is still down and I wouldn't begin to get excited unless I see a close over 1340 to begin with the, way the technicals look at this time. Corn had its worst low and close in over two weeks but has been basing over the last couple of months. Unless I see a new contract low and close, I wouldn't be inclined to add short positions now. Hedging concerns is a different story depending on each individual farmer's situation. That's where our hedging department would come into play. Since everybody knows the government is looking at record crops corn's action tells me it could be oversold at the moment and should not be sold unless we see a close under at 360. Our hedge department says many farmers have been holding on to corn from the previous year leaving little room for storage whereby farmers would be forced to sell a large part of their crops right away. The last cattle on feed report was bearish which can't hurt but won't be enough to help corn prices overall in my opinion. At least it may help stabilze the grains for a while. The beans (record crops forcast) and meal settled down while oil closed higher. The meal and meal/oil spreads have  given the bulls hope by consolidating over the last couple of months. The Nov. bean gap at 1132 1/2 that history says will most likely, but not always, be filled sooner or later has kept some traders nervous but the longer that gap remains the less likely they'll worry about it. I don't see much support below for the beans and oil but the Dec. meal does have strong looking support from 360 down to 340 (briefly penetrated).  In the end I still see the bean complex moving down while wheat and corn will keep slowing their pace down from now on. SELL SIGNALS FOR MINEAPOLIS, KANSAS CITY AND CHICAGO WHEAT ALONG WITH CORN, ROUGH RICE SOYBEANS, SOYBEAN MEAL AND SOYBEAN OIL. CALL FOR DETAILS.  For additional charts, quotes, news, commentary & more sign-up for a FREE 30-day trial to Market head.Com

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

  


MINNEAPOLIS.KANSAS CITY SPREADS LOOK POISED FOR A POSSIBLE BREAKOUT.

Posted on 8/27/2014 6:43:09 AM by: Rick Alexander, VP, Trading @ Zaner. 312-277-0107.

WE HAVE A VERY GOOD HEDGING DEPARTMENT HEADED BY TED SEIFRIED. WHY NOT TALK TO HIM OR ANY OF OUR OTHER HEDGING BROKERS. NO ONE WILL PRESSURE YOU AND WHAT HAVE YOU GOT TO LOSE? I'VE BEEN A LICENSED FUTURES BROKER FOR 41 YEARS AND TRUST NO ONE MORE THAN TED AND HIS GROUP

THIS IS OKAY FOR TODAY. NO UPDATE UNTIL NEXT WEEK

Higher closes for Chicago wheat and soybean oil while lower for oats, corn, Minneapolis and Kansas City wheat along with soybeans and soybean meal. We've seen the continued slowdown of the wheat complex with Minneapolis and KC showing little other signs of bottoming out but Chicago hasn't made a new low since July 29th. Minneapolis/KC spreads, however, continue to show signs of working higher but it sure has been a struggle trying to get Minneapolis to close over KC. Now that the harvest for wheat is almost complete there's not much more bearish news to affect at this complex. I would be careful of initiating any new short positions unless for hedging purposes. I just don't feel the action is worth the risk like in other markets at this time. Oats settled lower following through from Monday's reversal type action but the bullish trend is still in tact. I would look to go long somewhere under 340 where the bulk of good support resides. Rice settled lower now in a consolidation mode after a nice little run up last week. However, the overall trend is still down and I wouldn't begin to get excited unless I see a close over 1340 to begin with the, way the technicals look at this time. Corn had its worst low and close in over two weeks but has been basing over the last couple of months. Unless I see a new contract low and close, I wouldn't be inclined to add short positions now. Hedging concerns is a different story depending on each individual farmer's situation. That's where our hedging department would come into play. Since everybody knows the government is looking at record crops corn's action tells me it could be oversold at the moment and should not be sold unless we see a close under at 360. Our hedge department says many farmers have been holding on to corn from the previous year leaving little room for storage whereby farmers would be forced to sell a large part of their crops right away. The last cattle on feed report was bearish which can't hurt but won't be enough to help corn prices overall in my opinion. At least it may help stabilze the grains for a while. The beans (record crops forcast) and meal settled down while oil closed higher. The meal and meal/oil spreads have  given the bulls hope by consolidating over the last couple of months. The Nov. bean gap at 1132 1/2 that history says will most likely, but not always, be filled sooner or later has kept some traders nervous but the longer that gap remains the less likely they'll worry about it. I don't see much support below for the beans and oil but the Dec. meal does have strong looking support from 360 down to 340 (briefly penetrated).  In the end I still see the bean complex moving down while wheat and corn will keep slowing their pace down from now on. SELL SIGNALS FOR MINEAPOLIS, KANSAS CITY AND CHICAGO WHEAT ALONG WITH CORN, ROUGH RICE SOYBEANS, SOYBEAN MEAL AND SOYBEAN OIL. CALL FOR DETAILS.  For additional charts, quotes, news, commentary & more sign-up for a FREE 30-day trial to Market head.Com

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

  


Is there Cause for Concern about the Soybean Crop?

Posted on 8/26/2014 5:23:07 PM by: Ted Seifried, VP, Ag Hedging @ Zaner. 312-277-0113.

After a week of fairly wide spread rains the soybean crop conditions came in at 70% good to excellent.  While this is still a very good rating for this time of year it is actually a 1% decline from the previous week.  There has also been a lot of talk about diseases popping up this week.  Should we begin to worry about the soybean crop?
 
As of the week ending August 24th the USDA NASS reports the soybean crop condition at 70% good to excellent.  The biggest drop came from Kansas where conditions were down 5% in the G-E category.  The biggest improvement was in North Dakota, up 3%, while 4 other states improved by 2%.  Overall this is the time of year where we expect conditions to begin to decline, but with corn up 1% and all of the rain last week some analysts thought we could see one more improvement.
 
The drop in conditions may be somewhat attributed to SDS, white mold and other diseases.  There has been a lot of talk this week about SDS (sudden death syndrome) in particular.  Even though the pro farmer crop tour last week did see some SDS it was not a big topic of conversation in their yield assessment.  Reading between the lines it may be that this is the reason such high pod counts did not translate into a much bigger yield.  And, SDS at this point in the growing season may not have a huge impact on the national average yield.  As a soybean producer in Indiana put it - "August 26, meh.  July 26 it's a catastrophe.  We get it every year here, kinda used to it now."
 
On the other end of the spectrum, the North Dakota crop is looking great.  In most years this would not really mean a whole lot, but rail issues and the nations worst corn basis has encouraged a 1.35 million acre increase in soybeans according to the NASS.  This gives North Dakota the 4th most soybean acres in the nation this year behind only Illinois, Iowa and Minnesota.  North Dakota's soybean crop conditions are 75% good to excellent.  Many years ND is a drag on the national average soybean yield but this year they could really help push it higher.
 
The bottom line is that at this stage of the growing season SDS, white mold and other diseases may not have a huge impact on national average yield.  This may put a bit of a cap on the upside potential, but crops in the northern states, North Dakota in particular could offset or even more then offset any yield reductions in the I states.  Weather and crop conditions will need to be monitored closely however as an early frost or a much more widespread SDS issue would have an impact
 
Feel free to give me a call or shoot me an email if you would like to talk about your marketing plan, the markets, weather, or just to visit.   
 
December Corn Daily chart:

November Soybeans Daily chart:

December Wheat Daily chart:

All this means that speculators should be looking for opportunities and producers need to look to lock up some prices. Give me a call for some ideas. In particular, producers looking to hedge all or a portion of their production may be rather interested in some of the options / options-futures strategies that I am currently using.

In my mind there has to be a balance. Neither technical nor fundamental analysis alone is enough to be consistent. Please give me a call for a trade recommendation, and we can put together a trade strategy tailored to your needs. Be safe!

Ted Seifried (312) 277-0113 or tseifried@zaner.com

Additional charts, studies, and more of my commentary can be found at: http://markethead.com/2.0/free_trial.asp?ap=tseifrie


Is the Low in for December Corn?

Posted on 8/26/2014 3:48:30 PM by: Ted Seifried, VP, Ag Hedging @ Zaner. 312-277-0113.

This is one of the burning questions in the grains markets at the moment - Is the low in for December corn?  An argument can be made for either side of this debate.  One thing we can mostly all agree on is that any rally in corn could be limited.  But, will the December contract see new lows before expiration?
 
There is a lot of convincing things you can say about the lows in corn being in for now.  From a fundamental standpoint the most bearish news about the size of the crop is likely behind us.  A few weeks ago many analysts were talking about some super sized yield forecasts.  Most analysts are looking at the national average corn yield a little over or a little under 170 compared to the 174-176 estimates we had been hearing.  Now that most of the trade has come back down to reality the thought is that we will have a record yield and a record crop but not by as huge of a margin.  So the market may have already factored in bigger expectations then the reality.
 
Demand has also grown substantially with lower corn prices.  From the 2012/2013 to the 2013/2014 marketing years corn usage increase a little over 2.4 billion bushels!  To put this in perspective this is well over twice the projected carry out from the current marketing year.  Now, the 2012/2013 was a drought shortened crop that saw record high prices which rationed demand substantially and the sharp increase in demand for 2013/2014 was in large part due to pent up demand from the previous marketing season.  However, it is still a very good example of how demand can grow with lower prices.  So far export demand is been impressive for the new crop as well.
 
From a technical standpoint a bullish argument can be made as well.  On August 4th December corn made a new contract low and then ended up closing over the previous day's high.  This is called a key reversal and can sometimes be an early indicator of a change in trend.  Then on August 12th, the day of the August USDA WASDE report, December corn came 1 tick away from putting in a second key reversal.  And on a weekly chart December corn posted a weekly key reversal last week.  When you put all of this together you can build a strong technical case for the lows being in for December corn.
 
On the other side of the coin however the upcoming harvest has the potential to put a lot of pressure on the corn market.  We are in a much different position this year then last year as far as the storage situation goes.  There was a huge amount of available storage going into last year's harvest.  This is mostly due to the record high prices of the previous summer motivating guys to clean out the bins and sell everything.  This year there is still a large amount, I'll argue even more then the USDA knows about, of corn sitting in storage.  To make things worse it seems like too many producers waited too long to make sales and there is a lot of unpriced corn out there and much of it could get priced during harvest.  This could cause substantial pressure to the cash market and futures market as well.  If this is the case we certainly could still see new lows in December corn even though the crop might not be as big as what the market was talking about a few weeks ago.
 
Longer term I do think we will see higher corn prices.  Once we get past that initial harvest pressure corn prices could have a good chance of going higher.  Low priced corn at harvest could bring in substantial buying from global and domestic end users.  Also, the price of corn can only stay below the cost of production for so long before we don not plant any more corn.  Corn will have work to do to buy some acres as producers ponder planting intentions.  The way the board is now there is no incentive to plant corn and every incentive to plant soybeans.  However, this might not be what the world needs at this point.  With record acreage in the US and South America and record stocks of oil seeds in general we may have bought more then enough acres globally.
 
In the short term I am concerned that December corn could still make new lows as we get into harvest even though this crop might not be as big as once expected.  Cash sales coming off the combine may bee to much pressure to keep corn from putting in a new contract low.  However, longer term corn may need to see higher prices to avoid a sharp drop in acreage next year.
 
Feel free to give me a call or shoot me an email if you would like to talk about your marketing plan, the markets, weather, or just to visit.   
 
December Corn Daily chart:

November Soybeans Daily chart:

December Wheat Daily chart:

All this means that speculators should be looking for opportunities and producers need to look to lock up some prices. Give me a call for some ideas. In particular, producers looking to hedge all or a portion of their production may be rather interested in some of the options / options-futures strategies that I am currently using.

In my mind there has to be a balance. Neither technical nor fundamental analysis alone is enough to be consistent. Please give me a call for a trade recommendation, and we can put together a trade strategy tailored to your needs. Be safe!

Ted Seifried (312) 277-0113 or tseifried@zaner.com

Additional charts, studies, and more of my commentary can be found at: http://markethead.com/2.0/free_trial.asp?ap=tseifrie


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