Grain Futures Update

News & commentary on Grain Futures markets including wheat, soybeans, corn & more.

Grain Futures Update is a blog dedicated to bringing updates, news and commentary on grain futures markets including the commodities wheat, corn, soybeans and more.

This blog is brought to you by Zaner Group, one of America's oldest family-owned and operated futures and forex brokers.  Zaner provides a wide range of services from research and recommendations to the execution of all your futures needs.

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Futures, options and forex trading is speculative in nature and involves substantial risk of loss.  These recommendations are a solicitation for entering into derivatives transactions.  All known news and events have already been factored into the price of the underlying derivatives discussed.  From time to time persons affiliated with Zaner, or its associated companies, may have positions in recommended and other derivatives.


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Posted on 2/12/2016 2:32:35 PM by: Larry Baer, Market Strategist @ Zaner. 312-277-0112.

Call me for trade

 


Is China Sniffing Around for more US Beans?

Posted on 2/11/2016 3:20:45 PM by: Ted Seifried, VP, Ag Hedging @ Zaner. 312-277-0113.

On Thursday soybeans were up over 10 cents despite widespread weakness in commodities and global equity markets.  A lower US$ index and some talk that China may be looking at buying more US soybeans fueled the strength.  With the South American harvest getting into gear what are the chances that China would turn to the US for more soybeans?

While we might not know until next week's export sales report if China is back in the market for US soybeans it is not a stretch of the imagination that they would be at this time.  In many years the South American harvest gets slowed down by weather or logistical problems.  Trucker and/or port strikes can also delay South America from getting soybean shipments out to global end users.  While we have not seen any of this yet China could be worried about such issues popping up again this year.

The recent sharp drop in the US$ index could also be helping interest in US soybeans from Global end users.  In the last 9 trade days the US$ index has dropped from a high at 99.80 down to Thursday's low of 95.28.  This gives global end users more purchasing power here in the US and takes narrows the competitive advantage that South America has from currency exchange.

So far we have not seen any major weather issues that would disrupt harvest in South America and we have not seen headlines touting long lines of trucks waiting to unload at ports.  But, it is certainly possible that China is worried that some of these issues could be on the horizon.  It is also possible that China's South American trade partners are seeing issues on the horizon and are cautioning China that there may be some shipping delays.  Whatever the case it would not be out of the question to need to come to the US to fill some of their more immediate soybean needs.  We will be keeping a close eye on export sales reports in the coming weeks.

Give us a call if you would like more info on the strategies we are using or if you would like to set up an account to put a plan in action.  Ted Seifried - (312) 277-0113.  Also, feel free to give me a call or shoot me an email if you would like to talk about your marketing plan, the markets, weather, or just to visit.  Follow me on twitter @thetedspread if you like. 

March Corn Daily chart:

 

March Soybeans Daily chart:

March Wheat Daily chart:

 

Producers looking to hedge all or a portion of their production may be rather interested in some of the options / options-futures strategies that I am currently using.

In my mind there has to be a balance. Neither technical nor fundamental analysis alone is enough to be consistent. Please give me a call for a trade recommendation, and we can put together a trade strategy tailored to your needs. Be safe!

Ted Seifried (312) 277-0113 or tseifried@zaner.com

Additional charts, studies, and more of my commentary can be found at: http://markethead.com/2.0/free_trial.asp?ap=tseifrie


What did the USDA Say on the Feb WASDE?

Posted on 2/11/2016 2:44:46 PM by: Ted Seifried, VP, Ag Hedging @ Zaner. 312-277-0113.

The February USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report was expected to be a bit negative for grain markets.  For the most part is was even more negative than expected, however grains as a whole closed mostly near unchanged.  While this was not a shockingly bearish report it is somewhat impressive that grains were able to resist a strong move lower.  So what did this report say exactly?

For corn the USDA made only slight changes to the demand side of the domestic balance sheet.  Coming into this report expectations were high that the USDA would lower corn export demand the question was by how much?  After 3 weeks of improving export sales there was some questions about whether the USDA would get aggressive on lowering exports.  They decided to cut exports somewhat aggressively lowering projected export demand by 50 million bushels.  At the same time the raised demand for corn used for ethanol by 25 million as well as imports by 10 million bushels.  The end result was a 35 million bushel increase in ending stocks.  This was a little more than expected, but well within the range of guesses.  The more interesting number may have been the global balance sheet where the USDA increased global production by a little over 2 million metric tons however lowered ending stocks based on stronger demand.

For soybeans the USDA made very little changes on the domestic balance sheet with the only change coming from a 10 million bushel reduction in crush demand.  I have been talking about this being a possibility for some time now, and this could be the start of a trend.  On the global side the USDA increased global production by 1.5 million metric tons and ending stocks by 1.14 million.  Again, higher production was somewhat offset by stronger global demand.

Wheat was, once again, the most depressing of the bunch.  The USDA cut wheat exports another 25 million bushels and the domestic carry over went up 25 million bushels to 966 million.  The US carry over in wheat now represents almost half of last year's entire production.  Globally, ending stocks increased by 5.74 million metric tons reflecting the burdensome world wheat stocks.  However, the trade seemed to take this with a grain of salt because there is a good chance that the USDA will have to lower production estimates from at least 3 of the major wheat producing nations.

At the end of the day there was not a lot that was bullish about this report, except maybe for the fact that is was not shockingly bearish and really not new news for anyone.  This may be why grain pieces held relatively well with speculative funds already holding near record positions.  This report, for the second month in a row, may not have been what the large shorts were looking for.  Next we will focus on the South American harvest and the Spring planting season in the US.

Give us a call if you would like more info on the strategies we are using or if you would like to set up an account to put a plan in action.  Ted Seifried - (312) 277-0113.  Also, feel free to give me a call or shoot me an email if you would like to talk about your marketing plan, the markets, weather, or just to visit.  Follow me on twitter @thetedspread if you like. 

March Corn Daily chart:

 

March Soybeans Daily chart:

March Wheat Daily chart:

 

Producers looking to hedge all or a portion of their production may be rather interested in some of the options / options-futures strategies that I am currently using.

In my mind there has to be a balance. Neither technical nor fundamental analysis alone is enough to be consistent. Please give me a call for a trade recommendation, and we can put together a trade strategy tailored to your needs. Be safe!

Ted Seifried (312) 277-0113 or tseifried@zaner.com

Additional charts, studies, and more of my commentary can be found at: http://markethead.com/2.0/free_trial.asp?ap=tseifrie


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Posted on 2/10/2016 1:38:07 PM by: Larry Baer, Market Strategist @ Zaner. 312-277-0112.

Call me for trade

 


AG HEDGE- Corn and Beans Hold

Posted on 2/10/2016 11:46:54 AM by: Matt McKinney, Market Strategist @ Zaner. 312-277-0115.

Direct-312-277-0115, http://www.mmckinneyfutures.com/

TRADING COMMODITY FUTURES AND OPTIONS INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS AND MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR CIRCUMSTANCES, KNOWLEDGE AND FINANCIAL RESOURCES.

 

AG HEDGE- Corn and Beans Hold

On the heels of an underwhelming USDA report this week, grains held at critical support.

Fundamentally, the USDA report yesterday wasn't enough to send Corn and Beans higher nor was enough to send them lower. With the report numbers for Corn and Beans coming in line with expectations and Wheat looking a bit more bearish I will look to the USD Index as the outside market that causes prices to move up.

 

Technically, my support areas in both the Corn and Beans have held to my satisfaction. My major support area in the Corn market is $3.50/bushel and in the Beans $8.50/bushel and over the last several days we have tested these areas many times and held. I have added my favorite technical indicators to the charts below. I have coined them the "10/20/50/BB Trend Finder". They are the 10 (red line), 20 (green line), and the 50 (blue line) day Simple Moving Averages or SMA's. I have also added Bollinger Bands or BB's (light blue shaded area) and Candlesticks (the red and green bars with the candle stick wicks, and on this daily chart each bar represents one day of trading). These few technical indicators can tell me many, many different characteristics about the market at a quick glance so I have them saved on my charts in MARKETHEAD, so they can populate on any chart I choose at the click of a mouse.

 

 

Options on Beans for People Who Don't Know Beans About Options:

http://www.zaner.com/offers/?page=8&ap=mmckinne

 

In addition to were support is, these indicators on the daily charts tell me that Soybeans and Corn are in a sideways trading range and the markets seem to be building a base. This is fairly easy to determine as all of the indicators in my "10/20/50/BB Trend-Finder" are pointing sideways. The big question then is, are these markets building a base to move higher or lower?

I figured all this out by putting my "10/20/50/BB Trend Finder" on the daily and charts above and applying these indicators to the charts at the click of a mouse which I found at: http://www.markethead.com/2.0/free_trial.asp?ap=mmckinne , which is a web application that we have developed for our clients called MARKETHEAD where I get about 70-80% of all my research from. That means I get both technical and fundamental research from this web app and I am a veteran series 3 Broker of 17 years. So if I'm using it then maybe my readers should check it out. Yes? 

 

AG HEDGE-

For exact details on strategies, months, expiration dates, strike prices, and number of positions feel free to contact me at 312-277-0115 or mmckinney@zaner.com .

 

25 Option Strategies: http://www.zaner.com/offers/?page=11&ap=mmckinne

 

FREE QUOTE- "I pray every night, sometimes long prayers about a lot of things and a lot people, but I don't talk about it or brag about it because that is between God and me, and I'm no better than anyone else in God's sight." - Peyton Manning

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

FUTURES, OPTIONS AND FOREX TRADING IS SPECULATIVE IN NATURE AND INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS. THESE RECOMMENDATIONS ARE A SOLICITATION FOR ENTERING INTO DERIVATIVES TRANSACTIONS. ALL KNOWN NEWS AND EVENTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN FACTORED INTO THE PRICE OF THE UNDERLYING DERIVATIVES DISCUSSED. FROM TIME TO TIME PERSONS AFFILIATED WITH ZANER, OR ITS ASSOCIATED COMPANIES, MAY HAVE POSITIONS IN RECOMMENDED AND OTHER DERIVATIVES.

 

 

FOR CUSTOMERS TRADING OPTIONS, THESE FUTURES CHARTS ARE PRESENTED FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. THEY ARE INTENDED TO SHOW HOW INVESTING IN OPTIONS CAN DEPEND ON THE UNDERDLYING FUTURES PRICES; SPECIFICALLY, WHETHER OR NOT AN OPTION PURCHASER IS BUYING AN IN-THE-MONEY, AT-THE-MONEY, OR OUT-OF-THE MONEY OPTION. FURTHERMORE, THE PURCHASER WILL BE ABLE TO DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT TO EXERCISE HIS RIGHT ON AN OPTION DEPENDING ON HOW THE OPTION'S STICKE PRICE COMPARES TO THE UNDERLYING FUTURE'S PRICE. THE FUTURES CHARTS ARE NOT INTENDED TO IMPLY THAT OPTION PRICES MOVE IN TANDEM WITH FUTURES PRICES. IN FACT OPTIONS PRICES MAY ONLY MOVE A LITTLE.

 

THE LIMITED RISK CHARACTERISTIC OF OPTIONS REFERS TO LONG OPTIONS ONLY AND REFERS TO THE AMOUNT OF THE LOSS, WHICH IS DEFINED AS THE PREMIUM PAID ON THE OPTION(S) PLUS FEES.


US STOCKS SLIGHTLY LOWER. WORLD STOCKS SLIGHTLY HIGHER. OVERALL SLIGHTLY BEARISH

Posted on 2/10/2016 6:17:32 AM by: Rick Alexander, VP, Trading @ Zaner. 312-277-0107.

 

WE HAVE A VERY GOOD HEDGING DEPARTMENT HEADED BY TED SEIFRIED. WHY NOT TALK TO HIM OR ANY OF OUR OTHER HEDGING BROKERS. NO ONE WILL PRESSURE YOU AND WHAT HAVE YOU GOT TO LOSE?  I'VE BEEN A LICENSED FUTURES BROKER FOR OVER 41 YEARS AND TRUST NO ONE MORE THAN TED AND HIS GROUP.

 

 

Higher closes for Minneapolis wheat, and soybeans while lower for soybean meal and oil along with oats, rough rice, corn, Kansas City and Chicago wheat. EXCLUDING SOYBEAN OIL AND POSSIBLY SOYBEANS, THE CHARTS BELOW PRETTY MUCH TELL THE STORY ABOUT THE GRAIN COMPLEX! Minneapolis wheat made a new CONTRACT LOW while KC and Chicago made new CONTRACT LOWS AND CLOSES. Minneapolis broke down out of a possible bear triangle which is what its supposed to do. Now its nearest resistance goes from 495 up to 505 while KC's is above 460 and Chicago 470. The entire wheat complex has fallen sharply since my last Wednesday's comments with little hope in sight technically and fundamentally especially after the grain stocks report. However, Minneapolis did have minor reversal type action on Tuesday which isn't saying much in the overall picture at this time. Nothing has changed for me as far as wanting to see Minneapolis close over 515 with KC and Chicago over 500 in order to start to take notice of a possible turnaround. The problem is these prices are getting further and  further away. Oats remain in a nice boring downtrend started since Dec. 4th now making its worst low since January 12th which was its contract low day. Rice has looked weak since the beginning of October also making lower highs and lows since October (6th) and now has made its lowest low in 3 1/2 weeks. Its nearest resistance remains from 1110 up to 1140. Corn, after retracing higher for three weeks, now has fallen for five consecutive trading sessions culminating in its worst low and close also in three weeks after being unable to completely penetrate a decent looking resistance area as seen below. Also, corn has been making lower highs and lows since Oct. 7th. The bean complex also has been bearish overall with oil attempting to hold it up while meal drags it down. Soybeans did have mild reversal type action but meal made a new CONTRACT LOW AND CLOSE while oil had its lowest low and close in 2 1/2 weeks. JUST REMEMBER TO ASSUME EVERY CROP YEAR WILL BE NORMAL UNTIL PROVEN OTTHERWISE. YOU WILL BE CORRECT MOST OF THE TIME. A normal crop year, in my opinion, will not help grain prices to move higher however. SELL SIGNALS FOR MINNEAPOLIS, KANSAS CITY AND CHICAGO WHEAT ALONG WITH ROUGH RICE, OATS, CORN, SOYBEANS AND SOYBEAN MEAL.  For additional charts, quotes, news, commentary & more, sign up for a FREE 30 -day trial to markethead.com.

 


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