Grain Futures Update

News & commentary on Grain Futures markets including wheat, soybeans, corn & more.

Grain Futures Update is a blog dedicated to bringing updates, news and commentary on grain futures markets including the commodities wheat, corn, soybeans and more.

This blog is brought to you by Zaner Group, one of America's oldest family-owned and operated futures and forex brokers.  Zaner provides a wide range of services from research and recommendations to the execution of all your futures needs.

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Futures, options and forex trading is speculative in nature and involves substantial risk of loss.  These recommendations are a solicitation for entering into derivatives transactions.  All known news and events have already been factored into the price of the underlying derivatives discussed.  From time to time persons affiliated with Zaner, or its associated companies, may have positions in recommended and other derivatives.


07/29/2015 Corn and wheat have sell signals

Posted on 7/29/2015 1:49:18 PM by: Larry Baer, Market Strategist @ Zaner. 312-277-0112.

Call me for trade



BULLISH:WORST LOOKING WHEAT CROP (SOFT) IN 17 YEARS IN MANY AREAS:BEARISH:6 MONTHS SUPPLY

Posted on 7/29/2015 6:33:13 AM by: Rick Alexander, VP, Trading @ Zaner. 312-277-0107.

WE HAVE A VERY GOOD HEDGING DEPARTMENT HEADED BY TED SEIFRIED. WHY NOT TALK TO HIM OR ANY OF OUR OTHER HEDGING BROKERS. NO ONE WILL PRESSURE YOU AND WHAT HAVE YOU GOT TO LOSE?  I'VE BEEN A LICENSED FUTURES BROKER FOR OVER 41 YEARS AND TRUST NO ONE MORE THAN TED AND HIS GROUP.

 

 

Higher closes for oats, rough rice, corn, soybeans, soybean meal and soybean oil along with Minneapolis, Kansas City and Chicago wheat. Now the grains are in tricky areas to call but the directions are not!  Minneapolis wheat has now fallen thirteen out of its last sixteen sessions KC sixteen out of nineteen and Chicago fourteen out of nineteen. The bullish news is that the former two had reversal type action, some areas are showing the worst looking soft wheat crop in seventeen years at this time and all are in support areas to varying degrees. Then again to counter this, the wheat has around a six months supply in storage and I'm not even counting problems in China, etc. In other words continue to sell rallies with help from your broker and even better, our highly experienced hedge department, I mentioned a few weeks ago that the wheat complex chart formations looked dangerous for a nice size correction. Naturally, I could have been wrong and I have many times before in my forty- one plus years, but that's no excuse not to get some 'expert' advice from any source you so desire to verify my opinion(s). I know that I keep stating the obvious that,as farmers, you are always long the cash grains unless protected. I did miss by not giving sell signals for the wheat complex though, so you see. I'm not infallible. I continue to foresee the wheat complex working lower overall but more hedging chances should pop up along the way albeit at probably lower price levels than before. On Monday oats made a new CONTRACT LOW AND CLOSE just not looking good and should be sold on rallies around 250 and 265. However, a long term stop should be a close over three dollars. A closer stop is tough for me to come up with looking at all that resistance above. Now rice is another story. If you are looking for one bullish market in the grain complex, then rice would be it..You can see, by looking at the chart below, that rice has been consolidating over the last three weeks. Although its trend has been up since the middle of last May, you can use a close above 1120 or below 1080 for a further direction from here. Corn has fallen sharply over the last couple of weeks (down 7 out of its last 11 sessions) but now resides in a strong looking support area. Also, closing below the four dollar is not considered good but with less planting and in good support, I wouldn't sell now even though I'm removing my buy signal. Our hedge department did call a rally up to around 450 which it got and now that corn is back down below four dollars it's a tough call at this time. Still, this is not a bad price area to protect part of your crops if your cost basis justifies it in my humble opinion. Either way, you can't really go wrong doing some hedging if the price is right for you.The beans really needed to hold the ten dollar level which it did not and does have some support nearby but I still expect them to fall further into harvest unless a substantial drought comes along. The world supply remains ample and our dollar remains too high in my opinion.  On the other side of the coin meal has held up much better than oil overall and that should give the beans some support unless the former continues to drop hard. Meanwhile, on Monday oil made it its worst close since Jan. 30th pretty much telling its story. Now we just continue to watch the weather forecasters attempting to do their jobs accurately. BUY SIGNAL FOR ROUGH RICE. SELL SIGNALS FOR OATS. SOYBEANS, SOYMEAL AND SOYOIL. For additional charts, quotes, news, commentary & more, sign up for a FREE 30 -day trial to markethead.com.


BULLISH:WORST LOOKING WHEAT CROP (SOFT) IN 17 YEARS IN MANY AREAS:BEARISH:6 MONTHS SUPPLY

Posted on 7/29/2015 6:33:06 AM by: Rick Alexander, VP, Trading @ Zaner. 312-277-0107.

WE HAVE A VERY GOOD HEDGING DEPARTMENT HEADED BY TED SEIFRIED. WHY NOT TALK TO HIM OR ANY OF OUR OTHER HEDGING BROKERS. NO ONE WILL PRESSURE YOU AND WHAT HAVE YOU GOT TO LOSE?  I'VE BEEN A LICENSED FUTURES BROKER FOR OVER 41 YEARS AND TRUST NO ONE MORE THAN TED AND HIS GROUP.

 

 

Higher closes for oats, rough rice, corn, soybeans, soybean meal and soybean oil along with Minneapolis, Kansas City and Chicago wheat. Now the grains are in tricky areas to call but the directions are not!  Minneapolis wheat has now fallen thirteen out of its last sixteen sessions KC sixteen out of nineteen and Chicago fourteen out of nineteen. The bullish news is that the former two had reversal type action, some areas are showing the worst looking soft wheat crop in seventeen years at this time and all are in support areas to varying degrees. Then again to counter this, the wheat has around a six months supply in storage and I'm not even counting problems in China, etc. In other words continue to sell rallies with help from your broker and even better, our highly experienced hedge department, I mentioned a few weeks ago that the wheat complex chart formations looked dangerous for a nice size correction. Naturally, I could have been wrong and I have many times before in my forty- one plus years, but that's no excuse not to get some 'expert' advice from any source you so desire to verify my opinion(s). I know that I keep stating the obvious that,as farmers, you are always long the cash grains unless protected. I did miss by not giving sell signals for the wheat complex though, so you see. I'm not infallible. I continue to foresee the wheat complex working lower overall but more hedging chances should pop up along the way albeit at probably lower price levels than before. On Monday oats made a new CONTRACT LOW AND CLOSE just not looking good and should be sold on rallies around 250 and 265. However, a long term stop should be a close over three dollars. A closer stop is tough for me to come up with looking at all that resistance above. Now rice is another story. If you are looking for one bullish market in the grain complex, then rice would be it..You can see, by looking at the chart below, that rice has been consolidating over the last three weeks. Although its trend has been up since the middle of last May, you can use a close above 1120 or below 1080 for a further direction from here. Corn has fallen sharply over the last couple of weeks (down 7 out of its last 11 sessions) but now resides in a strong looking support area. Also, closing below the four dollar is not considered good but with less planting and in good support, I wouldn't sell now even though I'm removing my buy signal. Our hedge department did call a rally up to around 450 which it got and now that corn is back down below four dollars it's a tough call at this time. Still, this is not a bad price area to protect part of your crops if your cost basis justifies it in my humble opinion. Either way, you can't really go wrong doing some hedging if the price is right for you.The beans really needed to hold the ten dollar level which it did not and does have some support nearby but I still expect them to fall further into harvest unless a substantial drought comes along. The world supply remains ample and our dollar remains too high in my opinion.  On the other side of the coin meal has held up much better than oil overall and that should give the beans some support unless the former continues to drop hard. Meanwhile, on Monday oil made it its worst close since Jan. 30th pretty much telling its story. Now we just continue to watch the weather forecasters attempting to do their jobs accurately. BUY SIGNAL FOR ROUGH RICE. SELL SIGNALS FOR OATS. SOYBEANS, SOYMEAL AND SOYOIL. For additional charts, quotes, news, commentary & more, sign up for a FREE 30 -day trial to markethead.com.


November Soybeans Close Below Key Support, But...

Posted on 7/28/2015 4:36:39 PM by: Ted Seifried, VP, Ag Hedging @ Zaner. 312-277-0113.

Soybeans have been under pressure recently as weather has become less concerning.  November soybeans managed to close below the key $9.90 level today giving many traders a technical sell signal.  However, soybean spreads continued to represent strong upfront demand and soybean production is far from final.  Is this recent break of key technical support the start of a new leg lower in soybeans?

November soybeans are now almost 65 cents off of highs.  Better weather forecasts and stabilizing soybean conditions have soothed the production concerns that had fueled the sharp rally off of lows.  Going forward weather continues to look nearly ideal for soybean development as we get closer to the crucial pod set stage of development.  The speculative crowd that had been buying on a weather market are now looking to take profits.

However, going forward soybean production is not yet out of the woods.  Soybeans continue to be firmly entrenched in a weather market and will continue to be until late August as many fields are behind.  There also remains an other question swirling around soybean production aside form yield - acreage.  The USDA said it will re-survey 4 states for planted acreage and produce the results on the August 12th WASDE report.  This uncertainty could offer some support to the market.

Another potentially supportive factor in the market is the relative strength in the August soybean contract.  There is not even a third of the volume in the August soybeans compared to the November contract however the August contract continues to be supportive. This could be suggesting that commercials are aggressively buying cash soybeans on this break and could be suggesting that cash demand for soybeans remains very strong.

While weather and weather forecasts have gotten better and soybeans have let some steam out of the recent rally, the story may not be over.  Going forward the trade will continue to monitor weather forecasts and crop conditions and any concern could turn soybeans quickly.  And, this August 12th USDA WASDE report will address questions on yield and acreage and bullish expectations could support soybeans going into that report.  So, the close below key support is negative in the near term, but soybeans could still find support as we get closer to the August USDA WASDE.

Please give us a call if you would like more info on the strategies we are using or if you would like to set up an account to put a plan in action.  Ted Seifried - (312) 277-0113.  Also, feel free to give me a call or shoot me an email if you would like to talk about your marketing plan, the markets, weather, or just to visit.  Follow me on twitter @thetedspread if you like. 

Dec Corn Daily chart:

 

Nov Soybeans Daily chart:

 

Dec Wheat Daily chart:

 

Producers looking to hedge all or a portion of their production may be rather interested in some of the options / options-futures strategies that I am currently using.

In my mind there has to be a balance. Neither technical nor fundamental analysis alone is enough to be consistent. Please give me a call for a trade recommendation, and we can put together a trade strategy tailored to your needs. Be safe!

Ted Seifried (312) 277-0113 or tseifried@zaner.com

Additional charts, studies, and more of my commentary can be found at: http://markethead.com/2.0/free_trial.asp?ap=tseifrie


07/22/2015 Grains waiting for fresh signal

Posted on 7/28/2015 1:29:31 PM by: Larry Baer, Market Strategist @ Zaner. 312-277-0112.

Call me for trade



07/22/2015 Grains waiting for fresh signal

Posted on 7/27/2015 1:21:57 PM by: Larry Baer, Market Strategist @ Zaner. 312-277-0112.

Call me for trade



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