Grain Futures Update

News & commentary on Grain Futures markets including wheat, soybeans, corn & more.

Grain Futures Update is a blog dedicated to bringing updates, news and commentary on grain futures markets including the commodities wheat, corn, soybeans and more.

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Futures, options and forex trading is speculative in nature and involves substantial risk of loss.  These recommendations are a solicitation for entering into derivatives transactions.  All known news and events have already been factored into the price of the underlying derivatives discussed.  From time to time persons affiliated with Zaner, or its associated companies, may have positions in recommended and other derivatives.


Options Play: Beans, Corn, Amazing Crop Quality

Posted on 7/23/2016 9:50:50 AM by: Matt McKinney, Market Strategist @ Zaner. 312-277-0115.

Direct-312-277-0115, http://www.mmckinneyfutures.com/

TRADING COMMODITY FUTURES AND OPTIONS INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS AND MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR CIRCUMSTANCES, KNOWLEDGE AND FINANCIAL RESOURCES.

 

 

Options Play: Beans, Corn, Amazing Crop Quality

 

Amidst Some Of The Best Crop Quality In History Row Crops Like Corn And Soybeans Are Still Unable To Show A Technical Bottom.

 

Fundamentally, Corn condition rating according to the USDA as of July 18th is 2 percent very poor, 3 percent poor, 15 percent fair, 58 percent good, and 22 percent excellent. That's about as good as you will ever see.

Now the Corn crop is not made until its in the bin, but most farmers I spoke to this past week across the Corn belt in states like North Dakota, Iowa, Wisconsin, Illinois, Indiana, Nebraska, and Tennessee proclaimed she is not singing yet, but her voice has never sounded better.

On the Soybeans the USDA rated the crop as of July 18th 2 percent very poor,4 percent poor, 18 percent fair, 59 percent good, and 17 percent excellent. Again this is absolutely stellar and about as good as it gets.

The Soybeans are no different in that the crop is not made until its in the bin, but up until now there are not many complaints or even worries. And remember Soybeans need good weather in July and August, however most growers I spoke to couldnt ask for any better so far.

These fundamentals meaning the weather have been the driving force for lowest Corn prices of the year and Soybean prices that are literally falling out of bed. Its looking pretty ugly quite frankly.

For farmers who want to sit by and watch and work, maybe a plan should be put in place. I believe the guys who are prepared and proactive are the guys who will be around for the long haul. While prices have and probably will continue to take a beating, nothing lasts forever.

 

Technically, I have added my favorite technical indicators to the charts below. I have coined them the "10/20/50/BB Trend Finder". They are the 10 (red line), 20 (green line), and the 50 (blue line) day Simple Moving Averages or SMAs. I have also added Bollinger Bands or BBs (light blue shaded area) and Candlesticks (the red and green bars with the candlestick wicks, and on this daily chart each bar represents one day of trading). These few technical indicators can tell me many, many different characteristics about the market at a quick glance so I have them saved on my charts in MARKETHEAD, so they can populate on any chart I choose at the click of a mouse.

 

On the daily Corn chart above the market is in what I refer to as aPRINCIPAL trend down which is the strongest form of a technical trend that my indicators can show me. This occurs when first the 10 day SMA crosses down and under the 20 day SMA, next both SMAs need to be pointing down on fairly sharp angles and finally the market must trade under the 10 day using it as its upside resistance. We have that here and there is no sign of a technical bottom.

On the daily Soybean chart above, the market is also in a PRINCIPAL Trend down. There is no sign of a technical bottom on his chart in fact it looks like we will retest the low of the last session.

 

I figured all this out by putting my "10/20/50/BB Trend Finder" on the chart above and applying these indicators to the charts at the click of a mouse which I found at: http://www.markethead.com/2.0/free_trial.asp?ap=mmckinne, which is a web application that we have developed for our clients called MARKETHEAD where I get about 70-80% of all my research from. That means I get both technical and fundamental research from this web app and I am a veteran series 3 Broker of 17 years. So if Im using it then maybe my readers should check it out. Yes?

 

 

Options Play:

For exact details on this strategy, months, expiration dates, strike prices, and number of positions feel free to contact me at 312-277-0115 or mmckinney@zaner.com.

 

CME Options On Futures: The Basics: http://www.zaner.com/offers/?page=9&ap=mmckinne

FREE QUOTE- "Experience has taught me a few things. One is to listen to your gut, no matter how good something sounds on paper. The second is that your generally better off sticking with what you know. And the third is that sometimes your best investments are the ones you dont make."

-Donald Trump

 

FUTURES, OPTIONS AND FOREX TRADING IS SPECULATIVE IN NATURE AND INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS. THESE RECOMMENDATIONS ARE A SOLICITATION FOR ENTERING INTO DERIVATIVES TRANSACTIONS. ALL KNOWN NEWS AND EVENTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN FACTORED INTO THE PRICE OF THE UNDERLYING DERIVATIVES DISCUSSED. FROM TIME TO TIME PERSONS AFFILIATED WITH ZANER, OR ITS ASSOCIATED COMPANIES, MAY HAVE POSITIONS IN RECOMMENDED AND OTHER DERIVATIVES.

FOR CUSTOMERS TRADING OPTIONS, THESE FUTURES CHARTS ARE PRESENTED FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. THEY ARE INTENDED TO SHOW HOW INVESTING IN OPTIONS CAN DEPEND ON THE UNDERDLYING FUTURES PRICES; SPECIFICALLY, WHETHER OR NOT AN OPTION PURCHASER IS BUYING AN IN-THE-MONEY, AT-THE-MONEY, OR OUT-OF-THE MONEY OPTION. FURTHERMORE, THE PURCHASER WILL BE ABLE TO DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT TO EXERCISE HIS RIGHT ON AN OPTION DEPENDING ON HOW THE OPTION'S STICKE PRICE COMPARES TO THE UNDERLYING FUTURE'S PRICE. THE FUTURES CHARTS ARE NOT INTENDED TO IMPLY THAT OPTION PRICES MOVE IN TANDEM WITH FUTURES PRICES. IN FACT OPTIONS PRICES MAY ONLY MOVE A LITTLE.

THE LIMITED RISK CHARACTERISTIC OF OPTIONS REFERS TO LONG OPTIONS ONLY AND REFERS TO THE AMOUNT OF THE LOSS, WHICH IS DEFINED AS THE PREMIUM PAID ON THE OPTION(S) PLUS FEES.


What is the National Average Corn Yield?

Posted on 7/21/2016 4:52:10 PM by: Ted Seifried, VP, Ag Hedging @ Zaner. 312-277-0113.

As we get ready to turn the page on the month of July the market will start getting ready for the USDA's August World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates or WASDE report.  This particular report is always interesting because it will be the USDA's first field based yield estimate of the year.  So, let the debate begin!

To this point the USDA has been using trend-line yields for their production estimates, which for corn is at 168 bushels an acre.  With a corn crop rated at 76% good to excellent condition, at the high end of the 20-year range, there has been little reason to question this target.  If anything some analysts are now starting to wonder if the national average corn yield can beat the 168 trend-line yield.  However, before we get to aggressive with increasing the yield estimate we might need to get a better idea of the effects of a hot and dry blast over the US growing season July 19-26th.

If we take the 76% good to excellent rating at face value, and assume normal weather for the remainder of the growing season it is difficult to not increase national average yield estimates higher than the current USDA estimate.  At this time last year the corn crop was rated at 69% good to excellent and we ended up with a 168.4 national average yield.  So, with this year's crop rated 7% better in G-E it would be logical to think that yields could easily be higher than last year, maybe much higher.

However, we will have to see how rating change after this hot and dry period.  While most of the corn crop was able to get through pollination under good conditions this is still a sensitive time for corn and there could be a negative effect on conditions.  Another interesting thing to take into consideration is that with last year's cooler summer meant that corn was slow to maturity and this extra time likely added bushels to the crop.  This year the crop is far mare advanced than this time last year and the heat is only speeding that up.  The July 18th Crop Progress report showed corn at 33% silking compared to 17% last year and 19% on the 5-year average.

Crop conditions will be very interesting in the coming weeks as we get set for the August WASDE report.  Very soon we will get a slew of yield estimates coming from all sorts of places derived from all sorts of methods.  It will be interesting to follow as we lead up to what will be a very important August WASDE report.

Give us a call if you would like more info on the strategies we are using or if you would like to set up an account to put a plan in action.  Ted Seifried - (312) 277-0113.  Also, feel free to give me a call or shoot me an email if you would like to talk about your marketing plan, the markets, weather, or just to visit.  Follow me on twitter @thetedspread if you like. 

December Corn Daily chart:

 

November Soybeans Daily chart:

December Wheat Daily chart:

 

Producers looking to hedge all or a portion of their production may be rather interested in some of the options / options-futures strategies that I am currently using.

In my mind there has to be a balance. Neither technical nor fundamental analysis alone is enough to be consistent. Please give me a call for a trade recommendation, and we can put together a trade strategy tailored to your needs. Be safe!

Ted Seifried (312) 277-0113 or tseifried@zaner.com

Additional charts, studies, and more of my commentary can be found at: http://markethead.com/2.0/free_trial.asp?ap=tseifrie


Soybean Bubble Burst or Weather Market Volatility?

Posted on 7/21/2016 4:19:16 PM by: Ted Seifried, VP, Ag Hedging @ Zaner. 312-277-0113.

November Soybeans posted a large outside reversal down day on Thursday.  This means that November soybeans made a new high above the previous day and then proceeded to close well below the previous day's low.  Not only that, but November beans also closed below key support of the 50-day moving average.  This was a nasty day for soybeans and leaves a scar on the chart, but was this the end of the soybean rally or is this just wild volatility of a weather market?

Early on the November soybeans were able to hold some strength after being up almost 20 cents in the overnight session.  Higher prices in soybeans were fueled by another concerning 2-week outlook from NOAA yesterday afternoon and a higher stock market giving speculative investors more confidence in commodities as a whole.  However, the early strength soon faded and at 11am central time (when mid-day weather comes out) soybeans took a turn sharply lower that continued into the close.  At the end of the day the November soybeans were down over 40 cents after an almost 64 cent trade range.

Short-term weather outlooks have not changed much in the last few days.  Starting early next week through the 28th of July the official NOAA forecasts are calling for hot and dry conditions in the majority of the growing area.  However, longer term forecasts going into August started to look a little cooler and wetter as of mid day today.  This triggered a flood of speculative buyers to run for the doors and cause a sharp break in soybean prices.

While Thursday's trade does not leave a good impression on a chart it is important to note that grains are in the middle of a weather market and long term forecasts are unreliable and constantly changing.  If in fact cooler wetter weather does return to the US growing area after this 2-week period of hot and dry soybeans may still have a good chance of producing a very good crop.  On the other hand, if the forecast gets back to hot and dry this could cause significant problems for yield. So, we will be watching the forecasts very closely in the coming days and the market might have some big reactions to any slight changes.  Weather markets can be very volatile and the wild swings in soybeans might not be done until after we know what crop we have.  Stay tuned.

Give us a call if you would like more info on the strategies we are using or if you would like to set up an account to put a plan in action.  Ted Seifried - (312) 277-0113.  Also, feel free to give me a call or shoot me an email if you would like to talk about your marketing plan, the markets, weather, or just to visit.  Follow me on twitter @thetedspread if you like. 

December Corn Daily chart:

 

November Soybeans Daily chart:

December Wheat Daily chart:

 

Producers looking to hedge all or a portion of their production may be rather interested in some of the options / options-futures strategies that I am currently using.

In my mind there has to be a balance. Neither technical nor fundamental analysis alone is enough to be consistent. Please give me a call for a trade recommendation, and we can put together a trade strategy tailored to your needs. Be safe!

Ted Seifried (312) 277-0113 or tseifried@zaner.com

Additional charts, studies, and more of my commentary can be found at: http://markethead.com/2.0/free_trial.asp?ap=tseifrie


THE WEATHER SAGA CONTINUES OVERSHADOWING MOST OF THE OTHER GRAIN NEWS

Posted on 7/20/2016 6:51:25 AM by: Rick Alexander, VP, Trading @ Zaner. 312-277-0107.

 

 

WE HAVE A VERY GOOD HEDGING DEPARTMENT HEADED BY TED SEIFRIED. WHY NOT TALK TO HIM OR ANY OF OUR OTHER HEDGING BROKERS. NO ONE WILL PRESSURE YOU AND WHAT HAVE YOU GOT TO LOSE?  I'VE BEEN A LICENSED FUTURES BROKER FOR OVER 43 YEARS AND TRUST NO ONE MORE THAN TED AND HIS GROUP.


             

 

Higher close for rough rice, lower for Minneapolis, Kansas City and Chicago wheat along with corn, oats and soybean oil while sharply lower for soybeans and soybean meal. Less harsh weather forecasts sent the grain complex tumbling. The wheat complex (down around 10 cents) continues to look very bearish with Minneapolis making a new CONTRACT LOW AND CLOSE AND Chicago a new CONTRACT LOW CLOSE. Goodbye to the key reversal for Minneapolis that really went nowhere anyway. Now Minneapolis has its nearest resistance above 495 with the major portion still above 525, KC at least has been holding over the last couple of weeks but that's about the only good thing you can say with its closest resistance around 560. Chicago continues to look very bearish. All my wheat complex analysis continues to be basically repetitive and boring doesn't it? Wheat should still be sold on rallies which our hedge department and myself can help you with. Oats could actually be in a possible bottoming formation but I wouldn't get too excited just yet although a close over 210 could help sway me at least in the short term. Rice could be in a possible BEAR TRIANGLE at this time so we'll have to see. Actually, it could be in the process of breaking out to the upside which might lead to at least a retracement rally up to the 1100 area. Corn (down around 15 cents) just had its second lowest close again not being very encouraging except that it's still holding the all important 350 area. Closing over four dollars would seem to be the deciding factor at this time and should be sold on rallies unless it happens. The 350 area is a strong psychological point which has been proven over time and has worked so far again. IN MY OPINION CORN WILL NEED A STRONG BEAN COMPLEX RALLY TO GIVE IT A DECENT CHANCE FOR A CLOSE OVER FOUR DOLLARS. The beans (down 39 cents and meal (down 1500) are approaching a sell signal for the former and has given me a SELL SIGNAL for the latter. Beans are in an important area to hold while meal made its worst low and close since the middle of May giving me the above mentioned sell signal.. Oil continues to look weak overall but has retraced higher over the last eight sessions which isn't saying much since the rally, so far, has only been for around 170 points and has been in a downtrend since the middle of April. BUY SIGNAL FOR SOYBEANS. SELL SIGNALS FOR MINNEAPOLIS, KANSAS CITY AND CHICAGO WHEAT ALONG WITH OATS. ROUGH RICE, CORN, SOYBEAN MEAL AND SOYBEAN OIL.  For additional charts, quotes, news, commentary & more, sign up for a FREE 30 -day trial to markethead.com.

 


THE WEATHER SAGA CONTINUES OVERSHADOWING MOST OF THE OTHER GRAIN NEWS

Posted on 7/20/2016 6:51:13 AM by: Rick Alexander, VP, Trading @ Zaner. 312-277-0107.

 

 

WE HAVE A VERY GOOD HEDGING DEPARTMENT HEADED BY TED SEIFRIED. WHY NOT TALK TO HIM OR ANY OF OUR OTHER HEDGING BROKERS. NO ONE WILL PRESSURE YOU AND WHAT HAVE YOU GOT TO LOSE?  I'VE BEEN A LICENSED FUTURES BROKER FOR OVER 43 YEARS AND TRUST NO ONE MORE THAN TED AND HIS GROUP.


             

 

Higher close for rough rice, lower for Minneapolis, Kansas City and Chicago wheat along with corn, oats and soybean oil while sharply lower for soybeans and soybean meal. Less harsh weather forecasts sent the grain complex tumbling. The wheat complex (down around 10 cents) continues to look very bearish with Minneapolis making a new CONTRACT LOW AND CLOSE AND Chicago a new CONTRACT LOW CLOSE. Goodbye to the key reversal for Minneapolis that really went nowhere anyway. Now Minneapolis has its nearest resistance above 495 with the major portion still above 525, KC at least has been holding over the last couple of weeks but that's about the only good thing you can say with its closest resistance around 560. Chicago continues to look very bearish. All my wheat complex analysis continues to be basically repetitive and boring doesn't it? Wheat should still be sold on rallies which our hedge department and myself can help you with. Oats could actually be in a possible bottoming formation but I wouldn't get too excited just yet although a close over 210 could help sway me at least in the short term. Rice could be in a possible BEAR TRIANGLE at this time so we'll have to see. Actually, it could be in the process of breaking out to the upside which might lead to at least a retracement rally up to the 1100 area. Corn (down around 15 cents) just had its second lowest close again not being very encouraging except that it's still holding the all important 350 area. Closing over four dollars would seem to be the deciding factor at this time and should be sold on rallies unless it happens. The 350 area is a strong psychological point which has been proven over time and has worked so far again. IN MY OPINION CORN WILL NEED A STRONG BEAN COMPLEX RALLY TO GIVE IT A DECENT CHANCE FOR A CLOSE OVER FOUR DOLLARS. The beans (down 39 cents and meal (down 1500) are approaching a sell signal for the former and has given me a SELL SIGNAL for the latter. Beans are in an important area to hold while meal made its worst low and close since the middle of May giving me the above mentioned sell signal.. Oil continues to look weak overall but has retraced higher over the last eight sessions which isn't saying much since the rally, so far, has only been for around 170 points and has been in a downtrend since the middle of April. BUY SIGNAL FOR SOYBEANS. SELL SIGNALS FOR MINNEAPOLIS, KANSAS CITY AND CHICAGO WHEAT ALONG WITH OATS. ROUGH RICE, CORN, SOYBEAN MEAL AND SOYBEAN OIL.  For additional charts, quotes, news, commentary & more, sign up for a FREE 30 -day trial to markethead.com.

 


WEATHER STILL THE ISSUE FOR ESPECIALLY THE SOYBEANS. CORN LOOKS IN FOR NOW.

Posted on 7/13/2016 7:12:30 AM by: Rick Alexander, VP, Trading @ Zaner. 312-277-0107.

 

 

WE HAVE A VERY GOOD HEDGING DEPARTMENT HEADED BY TED SEIFRIED. WHY NOT TALK TO HIM OR ANY OF OUR OTHER HEDGING BROKERS. NO ONE WILL PRESSURE YOU AND WHAT HAVE YOU GOT TO LOSE?  I'VE BEEN A LICENSED FUTURES BROKER FOR OVER 43 YEARS AND TRUST NO ONE MORE THAN TED AND HIS GROUP.

 SUPPLY/DEMAND:

SOYBEANS - NEUTRAL
CORN - BULLISH
WHEAT - BULLISH

ENDING STOCKS:

SOYBEANS: OLD SLIGHLTY BULLISH, NEW SLIGHTLY BEARISH
CORN: OLD BULLISH, NEW BULLISH
WHEAT: OLD AND NEW BULLISH
             

 

Higher closes for Minneapolis, Kansas City and Chicago wheat along with corn, soybeans, soybean meal and soybean oil while unchanged for oats and lower for rough rice. Yes, the actual numbers overall against the estimates were bullish but the overall scenario especially for corn is not, meaning continue to follow the weather for a better take on the grain complex. Meanwhile, the wheat complex continues to look very bearish in spite of a minor retracement rally since last Wednesday's report by me. At least Minneapolis has its key reversal still in tact giving some hope to the technical traders!  Minneapolis still has its nearest resistance around 510 with the major portion above 525, KC 560 and Chicago 460. Wheat should still be sold on rallies which our hedge department and myself can help you with. Oats continue to not look good but even worse not worth trading at this time. Go look at a weekly chart and you will see what I mean. The same goes for rice at the current time while having its nearest resistance above 1070 after holding a support area lately.The corn supply/demand report was better than expected but the corn looks in at this time unless something unforeseen happens down the road. Closing over four dollars would seem to be the deciding factor at this time and should be sold on rallies unless the latter happens.. The 350 area is a strong psychological point which has been proven over time and has worked so far this time. IN MY OPINION CORN WILL NEED A STRONG BEAN COMPLEX RALLY TO GIVE IT A DECENT CHANCE FOR A CLOSE OVER FOUR DOLLARS. The beans and meal, at least technically, are not in bear markets but are in possible topping formations at this time. Both have held important support areas so far as seen below. Oil continues to look weak overall but have retraced higher over the last week while in a downtrend since the middle of April. BUY SIGNALS FOR SOYBEANS AND SOYBEAN MEAL. SELL SIGNALS FOR MINNEAPOLIS, KANSAS CITY AND CHICAGO WHEAT ALONG WITH OATS. ROUGH RICE, CORN AND SOYBEAN OIL.  For additional charts, quotes, news, commentary & more, sign up for a FREE 30 -day trial to markethead.com.

 


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