Grain Futures Update

News & commentary on Grain Futures markets including wheat, soybeans, corn & more.

Grain Futures Update is a blog dedicated to bringing updates, news and commentary on grain futures markets including the commodities wheat, corn, soybeans and more.

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THE FUNDAMENTALS DON'T SEEM TO MATCH UP TO WHAT MANY FARMERS ARE SAYING!

Posted on 7/19/2017 6:31:03 AM by: Rick Alexander, VP, Trading @ Zaner. 312-277-0107.

 

Higher closes for Minneapolis wheat, oats, rough rice, soybeans, soybean meal and soybean oil while lower for Kansas City and Chicago wheat. REMEMBER MY SIGNALS ARE FOR LONGER TERM TRENDS WHILE MOST OF MY TRADING RELIES ON SHORTER TERM SIGNALS WHICH YOU WILL HAVE TO CONTACT ME FOR. The government reports have shown so far that the grain crops while distressed in many areas due to drought and wet conditions depending on what the weather is at any given time, our hedge department has been hearing mostly bad news from farmers around the Midwest. I'm talking about extreme drought conditions in many areas, the vegetation health monitor not being good in many areas, low nitrogen levels, sidewall compaction for soybeans and the acres that are irrigated being okay but not great for the crops. That's just part of what we've been hearing directly from farmers. If this difference between the USDA and what we've been hearing keeps up, then we will all probably have to wait until harvest to get the actual facts of what really has happened. The drought conditions in key spring wheat states continues to play with the spring wheat as evidenced by Minneapolis wheat's rise overall even with its retracement lower over the last week or so do to increased rain in the forecasts along with the market probably being overbought. I still expect a test of its high on July 2nd. With that being said I haven't changed my mind about selling Chicago wheat and to less extent KC on rallies using technical indicators and/or options. Finally Chicago and KC filled their gaps last Friday. Last week's WASDE report was slightly bullish for beans while slightly bearish for wheat and corn but weather continues to be the overriding factor. Oats still look like they're in a possible BULL PENNANT or TRIANGLE. The oat chart continues to show a strong looking bull market at this time. Meanwhile rough rice is still in a perfectly looking bull market and should test its June 30th high. It would need to close below eleven dollars for me to change my mind on its direction. The bean complex has had a sharp downward correction since my last report but still remains in an uptrend overall in my opinion. Also keep in mind that the beans and meal still have unfilled gaps from the end of June that, while don't have to be filled, usually are sooner or later. Also, I would like to see oil close over 3440. BUY SIGNALS FOR MINNEAPOLIS, KANSAS CITY AND CHICAGO WHEAT ALONG WITH OATS, ROUGH RICE.  CORN, SOYBEANS, SOYBEAN MEAL AND SOYBEAN OIL. For additional charts, quotes, news, commentary & more, sign up for a FREE 30 -day trial to markethead.com.

 

 

 

 

 


THE FUNDAMENTALS DON'T SEEM TO MATCH UP TO WHAT MANY FARMERS ARE SAYING!

Posted on 7/19/2017 6:29:08 AM by: Rick Alexander, VP, Trading @ Zaner. 312-277-0107.

 

Higher closes for Minneapolis wheat, oats, rough rice, soybeans, soybean meal and soybean oil while lower for Kansas City and Chicago wheat. REMEMBER MY SIGNALS ARE FOR LONGER TERM TRENDS WHILE MOST OF MY TRADING RELIES ON SHORTER TERM SIGNALS WHICH YOU WILL HAVE TO CONTACT ME FOR. The government reports have show so far that the grain crops while distressed in many areas due to drought and wet conditions depending on what the weather is at any given time, our hedge department has been hearing mostly bad news from farmers around the Midwest. I'm talking about extreme drought conditions in many areas, the vegetation health monitor not being good in many areas, low nitrogen levels, sidewall compaction for soybeans and the acres that are irrigated being okay but not great for the crops. That's just part of what we've been hearing directly from farmers. If this difference between the USDA and what we've been hearing keeps up, then we will all probably have to wait until harvest to get the actual facts of what really has happened. The drought conditions in key spring wheat states continues to play with the spring wheat as evidenced by Minneapolis wheat's rise overall even with its retracement lower over the last week or so do to increased rain in the forecasts along with the market probably being overbought. I still expect a test of its high on July 2nd. With that being said I haven't changed my mind about selling Chicago wheat and to less extent KC on rallies using technical indicators and/or options. Finally Chicago and KC filled their gaps last Friday. Last week's WASDE report was slightly bullish for beans while slightly bearish for wheat and corn but weather continues to be the overriding factor. Oats still look like they're in a possible BULL PENNANT or TRIANGLE. The oat chart continues to show a strong looking bull market at this time. Meanwhile rough rice is still in a perfectly looking bull market and should test its June 30th high. It would need to close below eleven dollars for me to change my mind on its direction. The bean complex has had a sharp downward correction since my last report but still remains in an uptrend overall in my opinion. Also keep in mind that the beans and meal still have unfilled gaps from the end of June that, while don't have to be filled, usually are sooner or later. Also, I would like to see oil close over 3440. BUY SIGNALS FOR MINNEAPOLIS, KANSAS CITY AND CHICAGO WHEAT ALONG WITH OATS, ROUGH RICE.  CORN, SOYBEANS, SOYBEAN MEAL AND SOYBEAN OIL. For additional charts, quotes, news, commentary & more, sign up for a FREE 30 -day trial to markethead.com.

 

 

 

 

 


THE FUNDAMENTALS DON'T SEEM TO MATCH UP TO WHAT MANY FARMERS ARE SAYING!

Posted on 7/19/2017 6:28:54 AM by: Rick Alexander, VP, Trading @ Zaner. 312-277-0107.

 

Higher closes for Minneapolis wheat, oats, rough rice, soybeans, soybean meal and soybean oil while lower for Kansas City and Chicago wheat. REMEMBER MY SIGNALS ARE FOR LONGER TERM TRENDS WHILE MOST OF MY TRADING RELIES ON SHORTER TERM SIGNALS WHICH YOU WILL HAVE TO CONTACT ME FOR. The government reports have show so far that the grain crops while distressed in many areas due to drought and wet conditions depending on what the weather is at any given time, our hedge department has been hearing mostly bad news from farmers around the Midwest. I'm talking about extreme drought conditions in many areas, the vegetation health monitor not being good in many areas, low nitrogen levels, sidewall compaction for soybeans and the acres that are irrigated being okay but not great for the crops. That's just part of what we've been hearing directly from farmers. If this difference between the USDA and what we've been hearing keeps up, then we will all probably have to wait until harvest to get the actual facts of what really has happened. The drought conditions in key spring wheat states continues to play with the spring wheat as evidenced by Minneapolis wheat's rise overall even with its retracement lower over the last week or so do to increased rain in the forecasts along with the market probably being overbought. I still expect a test of its high on July 2nd. With that being said I haven't changed my mind about selling Chicago wheat and to less extent KC on rallies using technical indicators and/or options. Finally Chicago and KC filled their gaps last Friday. Last week's WASDE report was slightly bullish for beans while slightly bearish for wheat and corn but weather continues to be the overriding factor. Oats still look like they're in a possible BULL PENNANT or TRIANGLE. The oat chart continues to show a strong looking bull market at this time. Meanwhile rough rice is still in a perfectly looking bull market and should test its June 30th high. It would need to close below eleven dollars for me to change my mind on its direction. The bean complex has had a sharp downward correction since my last report but still remains in an uptrend overall in my opinion. Also keep in mind that the beans and meal still have unfilled gaps from the end of June that, while don't have to be filled, usually are sooner or later. Also, I would like to see oil close over 3440. BUY SIGNALS FOR MINNEAPOLIS, KANSAS CITY AND CHICAGO WHEAT ALONG WITH OATS, ROUGH RICE.  CORN, SOYBEANS, SOYBEAN MEAL AND SOYBEAN OIL. For additional charts, quotes, news, commentary & more, sign up for a FREE 30 -day trial to markethead.com.

 

 

 

 

 


THE FUNDAMENTALS DON'T SEEM TO MATCH UP TO WHAT MANY FARMERS ARE SAYING!

Posted on 7/18/2017 12:48:54 PM by: Rick Alexander, VP, Trading @ Zaner. 312-277-0107.

 

Higher closes for Minneapolis, Kansas City and Chicago wheat along with oats, rough rice, soybeans, soybean meal and soybean oil but one tick lower for corn. REMEMBER MY SIGNALS ARE FOR LONGER TERM TRENDS WHILE MOST OF MY TRADING RELIES ON SHORTER TERM SIGNALS WHICH YOU WILL HAVE TO CONTACT ME FOR. In my last report I gave incorrect wheat stocks information from wrongly overhearing a broker from our hedge department. I didn't confirm what I heard and am completely in the wrong with no excuse. It won't happen again. The United States actually has around 50 % of wheat in storage to cover a year while the world is around 35% and could be facing its first deficit since 2012-2013. Also, we don't even know how good the quality of wheat is for feed! This unusual grain rally lead by Spring Wheat prices is a cause for concern but I still believe it could lead to and opportunity for selling Chicago wheat. The only problem is where and, if the situation arises, I plan on using my technical indicators to probe for a possible top when that happens. The drought conditions in key spring wheat states continues to play with the spring wheat as evidenced by Minneapolis wheat's second highest close of its entire move while KC's and Chicago's since June 2016. Finally, I see possible BULL PENNANTS for all three not to mention the WASDE REPORT coming out. Oats also could be in a BULL PENNANT while making its second highest close since coming on the board. Meanwhile rough rice made a new CONTRACT HIGH AND CLOSE while in a perfectly looking bull market and, like the other grains mentioned above, nowhere near a support area. However, corn made a new CONTRACT HIGH before settling lower in REVERSAL TYPE ACTION although one by one tick! Then again, for the long term corn gave me a BUY SIGNAL after settling above 410 on Monday. Now all I see is major support nearby as seen below. The beans and meal had their best highs and closes since  2014 along with oil since this last March which now give me BUY SIGNALS for the meal. I want to see a close over 3440 instead of 3400 for the oil however. BUY SIGNALS FOR MINNEAPOLIS, KANSAS CITY AND CHICAGO WHEAT ALONG WITH OATS, ROUGH RICE.  CORN, SOYBEANS, SOYBEAN MEAL AND SOYBEAN OIL. For additional charts, quotes, news, commentary & more, sign up for a FREE 30 -day trial to markethead.com.

 

 

 

 

 


WASDE REPORT ON WEDNESDAY + MY APOLOGY FOR ERRONEOUS WHEAT STOCK COMMENTS

Posted on 7/12/2017 6:38:04 AM by: Rick Alexander, VP, Trading @ Zaner. 312-277-0107.

 

Higher closes for Minneapolis, Kansas City and Chicago wheat along with oats, rough rice, soybeans, soybean meal and soybean oil but one tick lower for corn. REMEMBER MY SIGNALS ARE FOR LONGER TERM TRENDS WHILE MOST OF MY TRADING RELIES ON SHORTER TERM SIGNALS WHICH YOU WILL HAVE TO CONTACT ME FOR. In my last report I gave incorrect wheat stocks information from wrongly overhearing a broker from our hedge department. I didn't confirm what I heard and am completely in the wrong with no excuse. It won't happen again. The United States actually has around 50 % of wheat in storage to cover a year while the world is around 35% and could be facing its first deficit since 2012-2013. Also, we don't even know how good the quality of wheat is for feed! This unusual grain rally lead by Spring Wheat prices is a cause for concern  but I still believe it could lead to and opportunity for selling Chicago wheat. The only problem is where and, if the situation arises, I plan on using my technical indicators to probe for a possible top when that happens. The drought conditions in key spring wheat states continues to play with the spring wheat as evidenced by Minneapolis wheat's second highest close of its entire move while KC's and Chicago's since June 2016. Finally, I see possible BULL PENNANTS for all three not to mention the WASDE REPORT coming out. Oats also could be in a BULL PENNANT while making its second highest close since coming on the board. Meanwhile rough rice made a new CONTRACT HIGH AND CLOSE while in a perfectly looking bull market and, like the other grains mentioned above, nowhere near a support area. However, corn made a new CONTRACT HIGH before settling lower in REVERSAL TYPE ACTION although one by one tick! Then again, for the long term corn gave me a BUY SIGNAL after settling above 410 on Monday. Now all I see is major support nearby as seen below. The beans and meal had their best highs and closes since  2014 along with oil since this last March which now give me BUY SIGNALS for the meal. I want to see a close over 3440 instead of 3400 for the oil however. BUY SIGNALS FOR MINNEAPOLIS, KANSAS CITY AND CHICAGO WHEAT ALONG WITH OATS, ROUGH RICE.  CORN, SOYBEANS, SOYBEAN MEAL AND SOYBEAN OIL. For additional charts, quotes, news, commentary & more, sign up for a FREE 30 -day trial to markethead.com.

 


Will the USDA Lower Yield on the July WASDE?

Posted on 7/11/2017 4:46:57 PM by: Ted Seifried, VP, Ag Hedging @ Zaner. 312-277-0113.

This growing season has had it's fair share of issues.  A wet planting season followed by periods of hot an dry has cause some crop stress, especially in the Northern Planes.  With crop conditions coming down going into the July World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report the question is - Will the USDA lower yields for corn and soybeans?

As of July 9th soybeans are rated 62% good to excellent compared to 71% last year at this time.  While this is a significantly lower crop rating than last year the key development state of soybeans is not until August.  For that reason the USDA has historically been very reluctant to change soybean yields earlier in the growing season.  For the last 15 years the USDA has left the soybean yield unchanged on the July report almost every year with one notable exception - 2012 when the soybean crop was rated at a miserable 40% good to excellent (on July 9th 2012).

For corn there is a similar situation as far ac current conditions go.  As of July 9th the corn crop was rated at 65% good to excellent compared to 76% last year at this time.  Here too the USDA has been reluctant to make big changes on yield in July reports because July is the key development month for corn.  While historically there are a few more changes in yield in the July report than for soybeans the changes are mostly small with again one exception - 2012 when corn conditions were also only 40% good to excellent.  Other small changes came in 2003 when they raised yield 3 bushels an acre and in 2005 when they lowered yield 3 bushels an acre.

It seems rather unlikely that we will see much of any change in the soybean yield on the July WASDE report.  Corn is more interesting, but again the USDA prefers to play it safe and punt for the August report where we can see bigger adjustments.  While it is possible that the USDA feels the recent decline in corn conditions and the 11% lower good to excellent rating could justify lowering the yield it seems that more than a 3 bushel an acre reduction would be a big surprise.  And again, more often then not (14 of the last 17 years) they leave it unchanged.

Give us a call if you would like more info on the strategies we are using or if you would like to set up an account to put a plan in action.  Ted Seifried - (312) 277-0113.  Also, feel free to give me a call or shoot me an email if you would like to talk about your marketing plan, the markets, weather, or just to visit.  Follow me on twitter @thetedspread if you like. 

December Corn Daily chart:

 

November Soybeans Daily chart:

December Wheat Daily chart:

 

Producers looking to hedge all or a portion of their production may be rather interested in some of the options / options-futures strategies that I am currently using.

In my mind there has to be a balance. Neither technical nor fundamental analysis alone is enough to be consistent. Please give me a call for a trade recommendation, and we can put together a trade strategy tailored to your needs. Be safe!

Ted Seifried (312) 277-0113 or tseifried@zaner.com

Additional charts, studies, and more of my commentary can be found at: http://markethead.com/2.0/free_trial.asp?ap=tseifrie


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