Grain Futures Update

News & commentary on Grain Futures markets including wheat, soybeans, corn & more.

WHAT'S NEW? WHAT'S OLD?: NO EXPORT NEWS. NO FUNDS NEWS. CHINA RUMORS ALMOST EVERY DAY!

Posted on 1/23/2019 6:59:10 AM by: Rick Alexander, VP, Trading @ Zaner. 312-277-0107.




Higher closes for rough rice, soybean oil, Kansas City and Chicago wheat while lower for oats, corn, soybeans and soybean meal along with Minneapolis and Kansas wheat. Just a reminder about the charts below. They only show a small period of time which may make my comments look different from what you see below. Meanwhile the grain complex along with the rest of the commodities have little or no fundamental news due to the partial government shutdown affecting reports along the way and China - U.S. trade rumors almost everyday. I am a strong believer in using fundamentals and technicals together in some form to analyze the markets. In my case I use the fundamental news in an attempt to judge how much of that news is already discounted in the marketplace. Technicals, for me, is about timing. You can be right ten times in a row and still lose your funds without good timing and money management. As 2019 hopefully we will get a better handle on what's going to happen. Right now that doesn't look like we're going to find out anytime soon thanks in part to U.S, government in - fighting. For now Minneapolis (needs a close above 610) but did 
just have its highest high since Dec. 18th before settling lower in REVERSAL TYPE ACTION while still struggling in a decent resistance area. Conflicting information pretty much continues to be the story.  On the other hand KC (needs close above 530 and then 550) may be forming a bottom as evidenced below while Chicago (needs a close above 550) but not really going anywhere since last September. Oats continued to basically trade between 270 - 300 but are finally trading at times above 300 which bears watching as I need to see a close above 303 1/2 and then take out 317 1/4. Rough rice continues to hold its September low seemingly going nowhere but can be sold around eleven dollars where decent looking resistance resides. I still want to see a close above 1150 before I begin to change my tune about this somewhat dead market at the time. Like I've said ad nauseum, no matter what the fundamental news has been, corn remains in the same trading range (350 - 400) since last June. Just trade the range which is now starting to shrink a bit probably until the planting season begins. IN SPITE OF NOT SO GOOD FUNDAMENTALS THE SOYBEAN COMPLEX CONTINUES TO SHOW TECHNICAL SIGNS OF POSSIBLY TURNING AROUND. The beans are now in a resistance area but have been moving higher since the middle of September making higher lows along the way. I want to see a close over 940 at this time. Basically, meal (need close above 330) has gone nowhere since last August made its highest high since October 18th on Monday while oil is near a potential critical breakout (2950) of a possible W REVERSAL FORMATION as seen below. BUY SIGNALS FOR OATS AND SOYBEANS. SELL SIGNALS FOR MINNEAPOLIS, KANSAS CITY AND CHICAGO WHEAT ALONG WITH SOYBEAN OIL. For additional charts, quotes, news, commentary & more, sign up for a FREE 30 day trial to markethead.com.



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